Part of the problem in assessing new technology is estimating what is real for the majority of consumers versus what is real for the tech geeks (don’t get your dander up; some of my best friends are geeks).
Recently I had an interesting conversation with an NBC digital distribution manager, who said that companies, including NBC, are continuing to invest in WAP Web sites so that cell phone users can pull digital TV and movie offerings into their mobile phones and watch at their leisure. I asked my favorite IT guru why WAP was important given the usability of iPhones.
He said WAP was dead. Actually, the quote was, “Leave it to NBC work five years behind the times.” Ouch.
My question is, however, who is he really talking about? What percentage of the population owns a cell phone able to accommodate HTML Web sites? Isn’t there a healthy portion of the mobile phone consumer base that is, and may be for quite some time, overshot with technology like the iPhone? Even if companies continue to offer the stripped-down version of HTML Web sites, do enough mobile phone users have the kind of technology to allow them to partake?
My IT guys ability to scoff at NBC may be right on the mark; I don’t know. I have noticed, however, that early adopters usually have nothing but disdain for what the bulk of consumers are still happily consuming. While it’s lovely to be cutting edge, in business I have to know where my customers are. I have a feeling that they’re out there living life with a two-year-old cell phone, and not sitting in the back room of the IT department buried behind code and headphones, smirking at their ability to know what’s in and what’s out in tomorrow’s marketplace.
~Bonnie Southcott
haha… WAP has barely taken off! but i can see where your IT guy is coming from. the marketplace is a little bit like game theory: if you are ahead on the trends in the marketplace, and you are adept at seeing & seizing an opportunity, then you will think that today’s new trend is dead, too. that is, in terms of where your R&D department should focus their money on. and, the money is in the future.
i could tell you all the cool new things in Development right now, but that we will not see launched until 5 or 10 years from now. but can you just imagine what those might be? (oooh, i’m So excited!)
regard this case: hydrogen fuel cells have been in R&D for many, Many years now. some of its first proponents are now dead. but we need to be patient with science & the development of new products. but once hydrogen fuel cells have launched for the masses, guess what? we will Still be using gasoline to fuel up our cars. for a while. and for the guys (or gals!) in R&D, they’re working on something else, because for them, hydrogen fuel cells are old news. that’s how i interpreted what your IT guy said.
so… today’s “New” trends have, in fact, been marinating in Research & Development years & years ago.
it takes a Lot of Time & Money to develop a new product. if you’re in marketing or R&D, you Always need to be a step ahead. you Always need to be innovative & stay competitive. it’s game theory, baby: stay ahead of the curve!
anyhoo, i don’t go crazy over Every new gadget or whatnot out there. probably like you, i’m happy with not living with a robot that does all my house chores, makes me breakfast, lunch & dinner, and does my laundry. but that doesn’t mean there aren’t tons of robots in R&D being developed right now to do just that.
how funny: to all these visionary scientists, technologists, developers & futurists, we are all so old-school! i try to be a visionary, but for me, it’s still hard to imagine living in a world where all diseases have been eradicated, men & women get along, there is no religion or divisive dogmas of any kind, no war, no hatred, we can teleport ourselves to the moon or venus or jupiter, and we’ve developed a time machine where we can teleport ourselves from one era to another.
peace!