David Axelrod, the former campaign strategist for Barack Obama and now a CNN commentator, has issued a stark warning to GOP strategists: if President Joe Biden is replaced as the Democratic nominee, it could spell trouble for the Republican Party. Axelrod’s cautionary note came during a panel discussion on Biden’s recent assertion that his administration had successfully turned the U.S. economy around. This claim was made in an interview with “OutFront” anchor Erin Burnett, who pointed out that real income, when adjusted for inflation, has actually decreased since 2021.
Axelrod acknowledged that the U.S. has rebounded impressively from the global economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, agreeing that Biden is correct in that regard. However, he argued that this is not how the average American is experiencing the economy. “They are experiencing it through the lens of the cost of living,” Axelrod said. He suggested that Biden, who has built his career on empathy, should lead with that quality. “I think he’s making a terrible mistake,” Axelrod added. “If he doesn’t win this race, it may not be Donald Trump that beats him, it may be his own pride.”
Former President Barack Obama has also raised concerns about the structure of Biden’s reelection campaign. Obama has discussed the matter directly with Biden and his aides, suggesting that the campaign needs to be empowered to make decisions without always clearing them with the White House. According to sources familiar with the conversations, Obama has emphasized the need for more top-level decision-makers at the campaign headquarters in Wilmington, Delaware, or for the existing team to be given more authority.
Obama’s conversation with Biden on this subject took place during a private lunch at the White House in recent months. During the lunch, Obama highlighted the success of his own reelection campaign structure in 2012, when some of his top aides left the White House to take charge of the campaign. This contrasts sharply with Biden’s approach of keeping his closest aides at the White House, even though they are involved in all key campaign decisions.
Obama has also recommended that Biden seek counsel from his former campaign aides, which Biden officials say they have done. Obama has been explicit with people close to Biden, suggesting that the campaign needs to move aggressively as Trump appears poised to quickly secure the Republican nomination. His concerns are not tied to a specific moment but rather to his belief that campaigns need to be agile in competitive races.
Obama has long been worried about Trump’s political strength, telling Biden during a different private lunch last summer that Trump is a more formidable candidate than many Democrats realize. He cited Trump’s intensely loyal following, a Trump-friendly conservative media ecosystem, and a polarized country as advantages for the former president in 2024.
Obama is not alone in his concerns about Biden’s weak poll numbers and his unorthodox campaign structure. Julie Chavez Rodriguez, Biden’s campaign manager, is based at the campaign headquarters in Wilmington, while the president’s top political advisers work more than 100 miles away at the White House. This means any important move by the campaign is run by the White House first, prompting concern among some Democrats as they head into a turbulent contest likely to require immediate responses to fast-moving developments.
Axelrod noted that each president approaches his reelection differently and that Biden’s campaign structure may yet evolve. “Jim and I started building the structure in Chicago in the spring of ’11. President Biden has chosen to keep many of his key political advisers in the White House,” Axelrod wrote in a text message. “But by necessity, I would expect several of them will move fairly soon to the campaign itself.”
Some Democrats running on the ticket with Biden are worried. Rep. Elissa Slotkin, who is running for her state’s open Senate seat, has expressed concern to allies that she may not be able to win if Biden is at the top of the ticket. A spokesman for Slotkin’s campaign said she “looks forward to running with President Biden.”
Outside of urging structural changes, Obama has been actively raising money for Biden’s campaign. He has helped raise $4 million in small-dollar donations, including $2.6 million through a “Meet the Presidents” contest where donors have the chance to meet Obama and Biden. In a statement this summer, Eric Schultz, a senior adviser to Obama, said the former president “looks forward to supporting Democrats up and down the ballot next fall, and no race has bigger stakes than President Biden’s reelection.”
On Thursday, the Biden campaign released a new fundraising video featuring both leaders. “We need your help to ensure Joe’s leadership continues to guide us forward,” Obama says in the video. “We know the other side won’t rest, so we can’t either.”
The relationship between Obama and Biden is complex. While they developed a strong working relationship and their families bonded well, aides to both men say the “bromance” depicted in some pop culture accounts was always an exaggeration. These days, Biden and Obama check in with each other periodically, and Obama remains close to many of his former staffers who now work in the White House.
Some Biden allies who have heard about Obama’s musings on their campaign structure are dismissive, still feeling burned by Obama’s decision to support Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election instead of Biden. The mention of David Plouffe, who managed Obama’s 2008 race, particularly irritates some longtime Biden aides. Plouffe was the one Obama dispatched to warn Biden that he faced long odds if he decided to seek the presidency in 2016. “The president was not encouraging,” Biden wrote in his memoir, “Promise Me, Dad.”
Despite these tensions, Biden is frustrated by his public standing, frequently complaining about his low poll numbers in private conversations with aides. The low approval ratings have persisted despite a strong economy, as the country added 216,000 jobs in December. Just before year’s end, Biden’s rating tied his record low, with 38 percent approving his performance and 58 percent disapproving, according to a Washington Post average of 17 polls in November and December. Voters, including a majority of Democrats, say they are particularly concerned about Biden’s age and consistently rank it as a bigger problem for the president, 81, than for Trump, 77.
Democrats are also concerned about Biden losing support among younger voters and communities of color because of his handling of the Israel-Gaza war. In December, a New York Times-Siena College poll found that 57 percent of voters disapproved of his handling of the conflict, while 33 percent approved.
Biden’s aides, however, say that if Trump becomes the Republican nominee, a clear majority of voters will find Biden preferable, given Trump’s chaotic style and anti-democratic tendencies. In the Times-Siena poll, while all registered voters supported Trump over Biden, those likely to vote favored Biden.
On Friday, Biden held his first major official campaign event, traveling to Valley Forge, Pennsylvania, to give a speech blasting Trump as a threat to democracy on the eve of the anniversary of the attack on the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021. Biden launched his reelection campaign in April, but to date, his political activity has largely been confined to fundraisers and a few appearances at political rallies hosted by outside groups.
Source: CNN, The Washington Post, New York Times
