Beryl has intensified into a Category 1 hurricane as it moves toward the southeast Caribbean. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has warned that Beryl is expected to strengthen into a “dangerous major hurricane” before reaching Barbados and the Windward Islands late Sunday or early Monday. A major hurricane is classified as Category 3 or higher, with winds of at least 111 mph. Currently, Beryl is a Category 1 hurricane.
As of Saturday night, Beryl was located about 595 miles southeast of Barbados, with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph, moving west at 20 mph. The NHC has forecasted rapid strengthening over the next day or so. Beryl’s center is expected to pass about 26 miles south of Barbados, according to Sabu Best, director of the island’s meteorological service.
A hurricane warning has been issued for Barbados, St. Lucia, Grenada, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Meanwhile, a tropical storm warning is in effect for Martinique and Tobago, and a tropical storm watch is in place for Dominica. All except for Barbados are part of the Windward Islands. The NHC has indicated that “life-threatening winds and storm surge” are possible for the Windward Islands beginning Sunday night.
This is a rare occurrence, as more than fifty years have passed since a hurricane appeared before July 4th in the Atlantic basin. The last instance was Hurricane Alma, which hit the Florida Keys on June 8, 1966. Michael Lowry, a Florida-based hurricane expert, expressed astonishment at the forecast for a major hurricane in June, especially this far east in the deep tropics. He noted that Beryl is organizing rapidly over the warmest waters ever recorded for late June.
Beryl is the second named storm in what is predicted to be a busy hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30 in the Atlantic. Last week, Tropical Storm Alberto brought torrential flooding to parts of southern Texas and northeastern Mexico, resulting in at least four deaths in the Mexican states of Nuevo Leon and Veracruz. According to CBS News weather producer David Parkinson, Beryl is the farthest east a hurricane has formed in June, and one of only two to do so east of the Caribbean, with the other instance occurring in 1933. Parkinson expects Beryl to remain south of Jamaica, with any U.S. impacts still at least eight days away.
Warm waters are fueling Beryl, with ocean heat content in the deep Atlantic the highest on record for this time of year, according to Brian McNoldy, a University of Miami tropical meteorology researcher. Beryl is also the strongest June tropical storm on record that far east in the tropical Atlantic, according to Klotzbach.
Barbadian Prime Minister Mia Mottley urged residents to prepare for the worst while hoping for the best. She noted that thousands of people were in Barbados for the Twenty20 World Cup cricket final, with India beating South Africa in the capital of Bridgetown. Some fans, like Shashank Musku, a 33-year-old physician from Pittsburgh, were rushing to change their flights to leave before the storm. Musku, who has never experienced a hurricane, said he does not plan on being in one either. He and his wife found out about Beryl from a taxi driver.
St. Vincent and the Grenadines Prime Minister Ralph Gonsalves also urged people to prepare, announcing that shelters would open Sunday evening. He ordered officials to refuel government vehicles and asked grocery stores and gas stations to stay open later before the storm. Gonsalves apologized in advance for government interruptions on radio stations with storm updates, emphasizing the life-and-death nature of the situation.
Mark Spence, manager of a hostel in Barbados, remained calm about the approaching storm, stating that he is always prepared with enough food in his house. The storm is approaching the southeast Caribbean just days after Trinidad and Tobago reported major flooding in the capital, Port-of-Spain, due to an unrelated weather event.
A no-name storm earlier this June dumped more than 20 inches of rain on parts of South Florida, stranding numerous motorists on flooded streets and pushing water into some homes in low-lying areas. According to the NHC, the season’s first hurricane usually forms in early to mid-August, making Beryl unusual for having reached hurricane strength this early. The NOAA has predicted an “above average” hurricane season with 17 to 25 storms, 8 to 13 hurricanes, and 4 to 7 major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.
A tropical storm is defined as a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph, while a hurricane has maximum sustained winds greater than 74 mph. Beryl is now forecast to become a “dangerous” major Category 3 hurricane as it moves through the Windward Islands early Monday morning, according to the NHC. The cyclone had maximum sustained winds of at least 65 mph but is strengthening quickly. The NHC expects Beryl to become a major hurricane before it reaches the Windward Islands.
Tropical Storm Beryl is located in the tropical Atlantic, just over 700 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands. On its current trajectory, the cyclone is expected to impact southern parts of the Windward Islands on Monday. Hurricane Watches have been issued for Barbados, St. Lucia, Grenada, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines, with Tropical Storm Watches in effect for Martinique and Tobago. Additional watches and warnings are likely for the Windward Islands later Saturday.
Tropical storm-force winds are likely along the affected islands by Sunday, with hurricane-force winds expected on Monday morning. The NHC now forecasts winds reaching upwards of 115 mph, rating a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, as the cyclone moves through some of the islands. Beryl is not a large storm, so a slight deviation in its track could change which islands are impacted.
“This is a confluence of unusual events for June,” said FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross. “The storm is tracking at an uncommonly far south latitude, allowing it to avoid the Saharan dust plume and cooler water to the north. The atmospheric pattern it will traverse over the next two days is forecast to be extremely conducive to tropical development – again unusual for June.”
In addition to hurricane-force winds, torrential rains will drench the islands. Current forecast totals predict Beryl will bring 3-6 inches of rain across Barbados and the affected Windward Islands, producing localized flooding. The NHC has upgraded its storm surge forecast, now predicting a “life-threatening” surge that will raise water levels by as much as 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow in the Hurricane Watch area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
The first hurricane of the season usually doesn’t come until August 11. The closest American territories to the storm are the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, neither of which is under a watch. The FOX Forecast Center expects the main impacts to remain south of the islands, though a passing band of showers cannot be ruled out. It is too soon to tell if the hurricane will ever threaten the continental U.S., but if it does, it will likely be in a different form.
“After Beryl tracks into the Caribbean, the forecast becomes fuzzier. Could it eventually track into the Gulf? Yes,” said FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross. “Although it’s not worth thinking about. There are too many variables in play.”
Norcross added that the consensus at the current time is that Beryl will weaken when it reaches the central and western Caribbean as it moves away from the pristine atmospheric bubble over the eastern islands.
A disturbance a couple of hundred miles east of Beryl is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible early next week as it moves generally westward across the central and western tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph, according to the NHC. It currently has a medium chance of development over the next week and could take a similar track as Beryl.
Another disturbance dubbed Invest 94L is moving through the Caribbean toward Central America and southern Mexico, bringing heavy rainfall. The NHC is giving this system a medium chance of developing. If it does, it would likely be in the far western Caribbean or the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico if the system survives its trek across land.
Source: CBS/AP, FOX Weather
