Former First Lady Michelle Obama has emerged as the only Democrat who could potentially defeat former President Donald Trump in a hypothetical 2024 election matchup, according to a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll. This poll, conducted shortly after the latest presidential debate, reveals that Obama leads Trump by a significant margin of 50% to 39%. This positions her as a formidable alternative for the Democratic Party, especially amid growing concerns over President Joe Biden’s re-election prospects.
The discussions around Michelle Obama’s potential candidacy come at a time when many Democrats are anxious about President Biden’s performance. Following a debate where Biden struggled, key figures within the party, including Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez and Jared Golden, have voiced their apprehensions. Rachel Maddow from MSNBC has even called for urgent action from the Democrats to consider a replacement for Biden. Political historians and donors are also urging a reevaluation of Biden’s candidacy to ensure the party’s success in the upcoming elections.
Despite her clear stance of not intending to run for president, Michelle Obama’s popularity remains high, making her a significant figure in discussions about potential Democratic candidates. The poll indicates that Obama is the only Democrat who could secure enough votes to beat Trump in a general election. In the hypothetical matchup, the former first lady led Trump by 11 percentage points, receiving 50% of the vote over the former president, who was the choice candidate of 39% of respondents.
Vice President Kamala Harris has also risen on the list of potential Democratic nominee replacements, but she did not receive enough support to beat Trump in the latest survey. According to the poll, about 42% of respondents said they would vote for Harris, while a slim majority of 43% of registered voters favored Trump.
Despite being the party’s nominee, several post-debate polls have shown Biden dropping from the list of prospective candidates to represent the Democratic Party in 2024 amid concerns over his age and mental acuity. Biden tied with Trump in the survey, with both candidates receiving 40% of the vote. However, the difference in support is seen in that more voters said they would either choose a different candidate or would not vote if the nominee was Biden in any other matchup.
Several other prospective Democratic nominee replacements were featured in the survey, including California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who received 39% support, against 42%, who favored Trump. The poll, conducted just days after the first presidential debate, reported that 56% of registered voters think Biden should drop out of the race.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted from July 1-2 with a margin of error of 3.2 percentage points.
As the political landscape continues to evolve, Michelle Obama’s hypothetical candidacy remains a topic of interest and speculation, reflecting the broader uncertainties and strategic considerations within the Democratic Party. The poll showing Obama leading the Democratic candidate pool comes after the Washington Post reported that her husband, former President Obama, recently told supporters that Biden’s road to re-election has become more difficult since Thursday.
The poll also highlights the views of other potential Democratic candidates against Trump. Other prominent Democrats such as Vice President Kamala Harris, California Governor Gavin Newsom, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, and Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker have all shown weaker polling numbers against Trump compared to Michelle Obama. None of these candidates have formally declared their candidacies.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 81% of Democratic voters viewed Kamala Harris favorably, compared to 78% who viewed Biden the same way. Additionally, 59% of Democrats see Biden as too old to work in government, reflecting similar sentiments from a January poll. Only 18% of Democrats in the poll thought Biden’s ticket would be more appealing if Harris were replaced as the running mate, while 71% disagreed, indicating that most Democrats are content with Harris on the ticket.
As the political landscape continues to evolve, Michelle Obama’s hypothetical candidacy remains a topic of interest and speculation, reflecting the broader uncertainties and strategic considerations within the Democratic Party.
Source: Reuters, Ipsos, Washington Post
