Texas is now bracing for the threat of Beryl, which is expected to produce heavy rainfall and hurricane-force wind gusts for a large chunk of the state and northeastern Mexico. Beryl weakened into a tropical storm Friday afternoon after pummeling Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula but is forecast to regain hurricane strength over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.
A Hurricane Watch has been issued for much of Texas’ coastline, south of the Houston/Galveston metro. A Storm Surge Watch is also now in effect from the Rio Grande northward to High Island, Texas. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a potential for life-threatening water rises within the next 48 hours.
Storm Surge models indicate a water rise of 5 feet is possible as Beryl approaches late in the weekend and early in the week. Mexico’s government has also issued a Hurricane Watch from Barra el Mezquital to the mouth of the Rio Grande.
Forecasts indeed show Beryl’s weakening trend over land Friday morning will reverse once Beryl gets back over the warm, open waters of the Gulf of Mexico on Friday, slowly regaining strength. Computer models show the atmosphere in the western Gulf of Mexico will become less hostile to tropical development over the weekend while the storm begins to feed off water temperatures in the mid-80s.
“Such an environment should favor strengthening,” the NHC said, adding their new forecasts now show a stronger Beryl. In addition, more recent model computations are showing growing confidence of a further northern track as Beryl cuts across a more northern stripe of the Yucatán, suggesting higher odds of a landfall along the Texas coast.
Cameron County, Texas was one of the first in the state to issue voluntary evacuations. Authorities advised those living in mobile homes and visitors staying at parks to seek more substantial shelter. The county was one of 40 that were part of a disaster declaration signed by acting Governor Dan Patrick. Governor Greg Abbott is currently out of the country, but said he is monitoring the situation.
Communities in low-lying areas and along the coast have already started to offer sandbags to residents, which will be available as long as supplies last. “If it were to take the right-hand track somewhere up into central Texas, maybe even affecting at least the southern part of the metro Houston area, it’s likely to be a stronger hurricane because it has more time over the water and also take longer to get there,” said FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross. “So the certainty based on what we know from the computers is this is a Texas event because the bad weather is on the right side (of the storm).”
The latest forecast cone from the NHC now indicates Beryl could make landfall between Brownsville and Houston as a strong Category 1 hurricane. “This isn’t just a South Texas event anymore,” Norcross said. “This is an event for all of eastern Texas and all the big cities from San Antonio to Austin and especially metro Houston. Not to mention, of course, Corpus Christi, Matagorda Bay, storm surge along the coast.”
For the rainfall impacts, a wide swath of South Texas, including Brownsville, Corpus Christi and Port Mansfield, are in a Level 2 out of 4 threat for flash flooding on Sunday and Monday. Initial forecasts suggest as much as 4-8 inches of rain along the coastal areas from Brownsville to Houston and even farther inland.
“This is not a (Hurricane) Harvey event, but this is a heavy rain event because the storm is going to be moving more slowly than it is now,” Norcross said. “Now, Texas is not in drought anymore, but it’s not excessively wet either. So they can take some of this rain. But some of this rain over the Hill Country and in metropolitan Houston could be a significant problem.”
Any of the outer rain bands could also produce tropical storm-force gusts and even spin up an isolated tornado, meteorologists with the National Weather Service office in Corpus Christi, Texas said. Winds could increase as early as Sunday morning with peak gusts expected on Monday.
Beryl made landfall near Cozumel, Mexico, on Friday morning as a Category 2 hurricane, blasting the coast and knocking out power in several resort and vacation towns. Downgraded to a tropical storm on Friday afternoon, it is forecast to continue weakening until it emerges over the Gulf of Mexico late Friday.
Concern is growing in Texas, where the National Hurricane Center is now forecasting the storm to strike between Sunday night and Monday. By then, Beryl will probably have regained hurricane status and will be intensifying right up to the point of moving ashore.
“There is an increasing risk of damaging hurricane-force winds and life-threatening storm surge in portions of northeastern Mexico and the lower and middle Texas Coast late Sunday and Monday,” the Hurricane Center wrote Friday.
Computer model simulations run Friday showed the area just north of Corpus Christi as a particular area of concern, although shifts in Beryl’s predicted track — either north or south — are possible. In addition, hurricane impacts can occur hundreds of miles away from where the center of the storm strikes.
At 5 p.m. Friday, the Hurricane Center issued hurricane and storm surge watches from the Texas-Mexico border north to Sargent, Tex., which is about 60 miles southwest of Galveston. The watch area includes South Padre Island, Corpus Christi, Rockport and Matagorda.
Beryl swept ashore in Mexico around 6 a.m. just north of the beach resort of Tulum, whipping palm trees with 100 mph winds and pounding communities with rain. There were widespread blackouts, but no casualties were reported, according to Laura Velázquez, the national coordinator of civil protection.
Speaking from the region, she told reporters at President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s morning news conference that roughly half of Tulum and half of the territory of Isla Mujeres, another tourist destination, had lost power. Electricity was also knocked out in several neighborhoods on the island of Cozumel.
The strong winds toppled trees and some electricity poles, but no one was killed or seriously injured, Velázquez said. Authorities rescued several people from flooded homes. The international airport in Cancún canceled nearly 300 flights, while the airport in Tulum isn’t scheduled to reopen until Sunday. Authorities urged residents and tourists to stay indoors because of downed power lines and trees.
The storm didn’t cause significant erosion of the region’s famed white-sand beaches, said Gov. Mara Lezama, citing reports from the hotel association. The hurricane also didn’t appear to cause major damage to five-star hotels but pummeled the flimsy homes of poorer residents of the coastal communities. On TikTok, people described how the winds stripped roof panels from modest homes.
“The winds rose last night, and our electricity went out,” said a man who identified himself as John, in Playa del Carmen, south of Cancún. “At dawn, the roof panels flew off the house of our neighbors in front of us. The [car] alarms haven’t stopped blaring.”
Leslie Diaz posted a video on TikTok from Playa del Carmen shortly before the hurricane arrived. Her dog was burrowing under the blankets of the bed, in fear. “It’s nearly 5 a.m. and there’s a horrible rumbling,” she said, as winds whistled in the background. “It hasn’t yet touched land, but it’s already very strong.”
The region is accustomed to hurricanes; in 2005, Hurricane Wilma caused eight deaths and billions of dollars in damage. So Mexican authorities took ample precautions this time, sending nearly 10,000 army, navy and National Guard forces to help victims and to patrol rain-slicked streets.
As of 5 p.m. Eastern time, the center of Beryl was about to exit the Yucatán Peninsula, or about 610 miles east-southeast of Brownsville, Tex., while sweeping to the west-northwest at 15 mph. Maximum winds had diminished to 65 mph. Weakening is expected until the storm reenters the ocean.
As Beryl tracks west-northwest through the Gulf of Mexico into the weekend, where water temperatures are in the mid-80s, the Hurricane Center is predicting at least gradual strengthening. Model simulations vary on how quickly Beryl will restrengthen and to what extent.
Hurricane-specific models largely do not project rapid intensification. But larger-scale models from America and Europe are calling for what the Hurricane Center describes as “significant deepening as Beryl approaches the coastline.” Abnormally warm waters and favorable high-altitude wind patterns could fuel swift strengthening.
But Beryl could be inhibited from restrengthening if the storm’s core is too disrupted and can’t rebuild itself after crossing the Yucatán. Another wild card is exactly where Beryl will come ashore. Models project Beryl will parallel the coast of Tamaulipas, Mexico, and Texas on approach, meaning small wobbles in the track will have dramatic implications in ultimate landfall location.
A significant influence on the track forecast is a dip in the jet stream over the central United States, which will try to tug Beryl northward. But when, and where, that tug happens remains to be seen. If Beryl is stronger, it is more probable it will be drawn north toward the lower and middle Texas coast but, if it is weaker, it would have a better chance of striking northeast Mexico. The storm’s evolution on Friday as well as model forecasts suggest the former is more probable.
For those in northern Mexico or along the lower and middle Texas coast, it is a good time to begin preparing for a possible hurricane impact. A landfall in the Category 1 or 2 range is most likely, but a major, Category 3 hurricane isn’t entirely impossible if Beryl intensifies faster than expected. “Interests in these areas should closely monitor updates to the forecast,” the Hurricane Center wrote.
The Weather Service office in Brownsville, Tex., said up to 4 to 8 inches of rain could fall in the area depending on the storm’s track, causing flooding. “Along the coast … expect life-threatening rip currents, high surf, storm surge of around 2 to possible 4 feet, and elevated seas offshore,” it wrote.
The Weather Service office in Corpus Christi, Tex., also urged residents to begin preparations, highlighting the potential for strong winds, coastal flooding, a high rip current risk and heavy rainfall.
Beryl became the first hurricane of the 2024 season and the earliest-forming Category 5 on record in the Atlantic on Monday night. The storm — fueled by record-warm ocean waters — broke benchmarks for its strength and the rate at which it intensified so early in the season, stunning meteorologists.
The storm first hit Grenada, St. Vincent and other Caribbean islands Monday, leaving behind widespread destruction — particularly on the Grenadian islands of Carriacou and Petite Martinique — and killing at least five people. Three additional deaths were reported in Venezuela.
On Carriacou, home to about 7,000 people, the hurricane wreaked “total devastation all around,” said Allison Caton, 50, owner of Paradise Beach Club, a restaurant and bar on Paradise Beach that was destroyed. Many of the island’s residents are now living in makeshift shelters in schools.
On Wednesday, the storm scraped by Jamaica’s southern coast, producing flooding rains and wind gusts over 80 mph that destroyed homes and toppled trees and power lines. At least two deaths were reported and roughly 65 percent of Jamaica Public Service Co. customers — about 400,000 households — were left without power as of Thursday, the BBC reported.
The storm brought strong winds and heavy rain to the Cayman Islands on Wednesday night before barreling toward the Yucatán Peninsula.
Source: FOX Weather, The Washington Post, The Independent
