The recent resignation of Joe Biden is a truly unprecedented event in American politics. The only comparable situation in history was Lyndon Johnson’s withdrawal in March of an election year, which occurred seven months prior to the current scenario.
As for whether the resignation was a surprise, the answer is mixed. On one hand, it caught many off guard since the decision was made privately, involving only a handful of Biden’s family members and close advisors before being announced on social media and communicated to the broader team. The timing and the reactions from prominent Democrats were unexpected. On the other hand, speculation about Biden stepping down had been circulating for weeks, if not months. This speculation might explain why the presidential debates were moved up to June—an atypical schedule. Some began to theorize that if Biden performed poorly in the debates, it might lead him to reconsider his candidacy. Polls had already indicated a decline in his approval ratings and a drop in campaign donations, hinting at a downward trajectory.
Kamala Harris enjoys a significant political advantage due to her support from Biden. She is likely to benefit from the backing of delegates who are largely aligned with Biden at the Democratic National Convention. While there are other contenders, a strong challenge for the party leadership seems unlikely. Furthermore, Harris has logistical and legal advantages as she is already part of the Biden campaign apparatus and is viewed as the natural successor to the political organization built to run for the presidency. As the election approaches, it is reasonable to expect that the financial support previously allocated to Biden will shift to her campaign, giving her a crucial economic edge.
Looking ahead, the critical factor will be the support Kamala Harris garners, especially from key party figures. Selecting a vice presidential candidate will be vital and is likely to happen before the Democratic Convention. This choice could serve as a strategic move to discourage other potential candidates from competing against her. The big question is who will be chosen and how that decision will impact her campaign.
In American electoral literature, it is well recognized that two events have the most significant effect on election cycles: presidential debates and party conventions. The debates have already occurred, with the Republicans having held their convention and nominating Trump. Now, the focus shifts to the Democrats, who will have their convention in about a month.
Public opinion polls indicate that Trump maintains a leading position. Harris has slightly better favorability ratings compared to Biden, but she has also seen a decline in the last 45 days. Polls suggest that a matchup between Harris and Trump would be just as competitive as one between Trump and Biden. However, she currently trails Trump in the surveys. It is essential to monitor how public opinion shifts and how Democrats perform in critical states to build a coalition that secures a majority in the Electoral College.
The American election is at a pivotal juncture. Biden’s resignation paves the way for Harris, who must solidify her support, choose a strategic vice presidential candidate, and enhance her appeal in key states—all within the next 60 days. The forthcoming weeks will be crucial in determining the direction of the Democratic campaign as they prepare for a highly competitive race against Donald Trump.
Source: https://www.perfil.com/noticias/opinion/5-preguntas-sobre-la-eleccion-en-estados-unidos.phtml
