The asteroid Apophis was discovered in 2004 and was initially classified as one of the most dangerous because it posed a potential threat of colliding with Earth. Over the years, astronomers closely monitored its trajectory and confirmed that it would not be on a collision course with our planet.
To track Apophis, also known as 99942, scientists needed to study the orbits of all known near-Earth objects. This was essential to rule out the possibility that a collision with another asteroid could alter Apophis’s path, making it a danger to Earth.
A recent study led by astronomer Paul Wiegert from Western University explores the implications of what could happen if Apophis’s orbit were to change due to a collision with another asteroid. Such scenarios are concerning to those in authority who prefer certainty.
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Apophis is a near-Earth object (NEO), approximately 335 meters in diameter. Its significance arises from its close encounters with Earth, scheduled for 2029 and 2036. On April 13, 2029, it is expected to pass within about 37,000 kilometers of our planet without posing a risk of impact.
While it has been confirmed that Apophis will not collide with Earth, Wiegert and his collaborator Benjamin Hyatt from the University of Waterloo calculated the trajectories of 1.3 million known asteroids in the solar system to ensure that Apophis, which is being monitored and appears on NASA’s Risk Assessment Table, would not hit another asteroid. Such an impact could potentially redirect its path towards Earth.
Wiegert, a professor of physics and astronomy, explained, “We computed the trajectories of all known asteroids using detailed computer simulations of our solar system and assessed the likelihood of such an improbable event. Fortunately, no collisions of this nature are anticipated.”
Given the proximity at which Apophis will pass Earth, there is a theoretical risk that a deviation in its trajectory could lead it to collide with our planet. Hyatt, a university student at Waterloo who worked on this research, added, “Hypothetically, if another asteroid collided with Apophis, it could cause such a deviation, which motivates us to study this scenario, however unlikely it may be.”
To monitor Apophis closely before its flyby of Earth, the European Space Agency (ESA) plans to send the Ramses spacecraft to follow the asteroid and observe its interaction with Earth’s gravity. The ESA stated that “the tidal forces of Earth are expected to alter the rotational state of the asteroid and possibly trigger earthquakes and landslides.”
For the spacecraft to reach Apophis in time, it would need to launch in April 2028. This mission aims to help scientists understand how an asteroid’s physical state changes due to external forces. It is also expected to provide greater insight into the formation and evolution of the solar system. Wiegert and Hyatt identified the closest encounters between known asteroids and Apophis to gather more accurate information about their orbits. Nonetheless, the overall risk of Apophis colliding with a known asteroid remains extremely low.
Source: https://www.perfil.com/noticias/ciencia/preocupa-la-llegada-del-asteoroide-apophis-la-nueva-mision-espacial-para-vigilarlo.phtml
