Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw from the presidential race and endorse Kamala Harris as his successor has had an immediate impact on her campaign. This change has been reflected in contributions, prediction markets, and endorsements. In the coming days, it will be interesting to see if the polls follow suit.
A recent national poll by Morning Consult is the first significant survey since Biden’s announcement. It shows Harris just two percentage points behind former President Donald Trump, with 47% to Trump’s 45%, which is within the margin of error. This is an improvement from the six-point gap Biden had prior to stepping down.
There are reasons to believe that Harris’s name on the ballot could benefit the Democrats. Some surveys suggest that Harris may perform better than Biden in direct matchups against Trump. For several months, polls indicated that Harris would fare worse than Biden against Trump. For instance, a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll in battleground states showed her trailing Trump by seven points, compared to Biden’s four-point deficit.
However, this trend began to shift after Biden’s poor performance in the late June debate. By early July, Harris began outperforming Biden in face-to-face matchups against Trump, showing an average of 1.6 points better according to RealClearPolitics.
Meanwhile, Trump’s resurgence in the polls following last week’s Republican National Convention has given him a significant lead over Biden in national survey averages, as reported by FiveThirtyEight.
Yet, tested alternatives do not equate to actual candidates, and the emergence of a 59-year-old multiracial woman may attract younger voters, women, and ethnic minorities. Spencer Kimball, a pollster from Emerson College, points out that this historical significance is difficult to convey through hypothetical scenarios. The reality of having Harris as a candidate could indeed shift the dynamics of the campaign.
Previously, some Democrats may have hesitated to openly support Harris while Biden was still seen as the presumed candidate. Now that voters have the opportunity, they might feel freer to express their backing for her. Additionally, no prominent Democrat has yet announced intentions to challenge her for the party nomination before the convention in August.
However, Harris’s potential gains could be short-lived. The electorate remains closely divided, and even significant events—such as Biden’s debate performance, the assassination attempt on Trump, and the Republican convention—changed the polling averages by only three points collectively.
As Kimball notes, we will have to wait and see how developments unfold now that the race has heated up. It may take until the convention for the campaign landscape to stabilize.
Source: https://www.perfil.com/noticias/bloomberg/bc-candidatura-de-kamala-harris-reduciria-ventaja-de-trump-en-contienda-electoral.phtml
