Tropical Storm Beryl is now forecast to become a “dangerous” major Category 3 hurricane as it moves through the Windward Islands early Monday morning, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) warns. At last report from the NHC, the cyclone had maximum sustained winds of at least 65 mph but is strengthening quickly. The cyclone will be classified as a hurricane once sustained wind speeds reach at least 74 mph, which is expected to occur by Saturday night or Sunday. But the storm isn’t expected to stop at 74 mph.
“Rapid strengthening is now forecast, and Beryl is expected to become a major hurricane before it reaches the Windward Islands,” the NHC said.
Tropical Storm Beryl is located in the tropical Atlantic just over 700 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands. On its current trajectory, the cyclone is expected to impact southern parts of the Windward Islands on Monday.
Tropical Storm Beryl is expected to continue strengthening and soon become a hurricane before impacting the Caribbean. Hurricane Watches have been issued for Barbados, St. Lucia, Grenada, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines with Tropical Storm Watches in effect for Martinique and Tobago. Additional watches and warnings are likely coming for the Windward Islands later Saturday.
On its forecast trajectory, islands such as Barbados, Grenada, Saint Lucia, Martinique, and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines will receive direct impacts from the storm. Tropical storm-force winds are likely along the affected islands by Sunday with hurricane-force winds likely on Monday morning, according to the NHC.
The latest forecast from the NHC now shows winds reaching upwards of 115 mph – rating a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale – as the cyclone moves through some of the islands. Beryl is not a large storm, so a slight deviation in its track changes which islands have what impacts.
“This is a confluence of unusual events for June,” said FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross. “The storm is tracking at an uncommonly far south latitude, which is allowing it to avoid the Saharan dust plume and cooler water to the north. The atmospheric pattern it will traverse over the next two days is forecast to be extremely conducive to tropical development – again unusual for June.”
In addition to hurricane-force winds, torrential rains will drench the islands. Current forecast totals predict Beryl will bring 3-6 inches of rain across Barbados and the affected Windward Islands, producing localized flooding. The NHC has upgraded its storm surge forecast, now predicting a “life-threatening” surge that will raise water levels by as much as 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow in the Hurricane Watch area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
The first hurricane of the season usually doesn’t come until Aug. 11. The closest American territories to the storm are the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, and neither is under a watch. The FOX Forecast Center expects the main impacts to remain south of the islands; however, a passing band of showers cannot be ruled out.
It is too soon to tell if the hurricane will ever threaten the continental U.S., but if it does, it will likely be in a different form. “After Beryl tracks into the Caribbean, the forecast becomes fuzzier. Could it eventually track into the Gulf? Yes,” said FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross. “Although it’s not worth thinking about. There are too many variables in play.”
Norcross adds that the consensus at the current time is that Beryl will weaken when it reaches the central and western Caribbean as it moves away from the pristine atmospheric bubble over the eastern islands.
A disturbance a couple of hundred miles east of Beryl is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible early next week as it moves generally westward across the central and western tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph, according to the NHC. It currently has a medium chance of development over the next week and could take a similar track as Beryl.
Another disturbance dubbed Invest 94L is moving through the Caribbean toward Central America and southern Mexico, bringing heavy rainfall. The NHC is giving this system a medium chance of developing. If it does, it would likely be in the far western Caribbean or the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico if the system survives its trek across land.
Tropical cyclone Beryl has become a major hurricane forecast to bring life-threatening winds and storm surge to the Caribbean, according to the National Hurricane Center. The hurricane is headed toward the Windward Islands, which include Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, and Martinique. As of Saturday evening, Beryl is about 595 miles east-southeast of Barbados with maximum sustained winds of near 85 mph. It’s moving west at around 20 mph.
“Rapid strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, and Beryl is expected to become a dangerous major hurricane before it reaches the Windward Islands,” the National Hurricane Center said in an update late Saturday. Beryl’s center is expected to move across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday, the agency said. A hurricane warning is in effect for Barbados, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada, where hurricane conditions are expected starting Sunday night, per the National Hurricane Center. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for Martinique and Tobago, which could experience tropical storm conditions beginning Sunday night, and a tropical storm watch is in effect for Dominica, which could also experience tropical storm conditions Sunday night.
“Devastating wind damage is expected where the eyewall of Beryl moves through portions of the Windward Islands,” the hurricane center said. Life-threatening storm surges may raise water levels by 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane watch areas and bring destructive waves to the coast. A total of 3 to 6 inches of rainfall is possible across Barbados and the Windward Islands Sunday into Monday, which may cause flooding in some areas. North of Beryl, 1 to 4 inches of rain is possible in parts of southeastern Puerto Rico Monday night into Tuesday. Additional warnings and watches are possible for the region later Saturday, the National Hurricane Center said.
By late Saturday morning, Beryl had continued to strengthen: Maximum sustained winds were 65 mph and pressure dropped to 998 mb. The storm’s position was 820 miles east of Barbados just before noon on Saturday. Over the next few days, Beryl is expected to travel through an environment that is quite supportive of tropical convection. Forecasters expect the storm to become the first hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season by early Sunday morning as it tracks due westward toward the Lesser Antilles. By early Monday, Beryl will approach Barbados, St. Vincent, Grenada, St. Lucia, and Martinique and it is expected that the storm will have strengthened into a major category 3 hurricane.
Source: FOX Weather, National Hurricane Center
