**Biden’s Asylum Halt Impacts Mexicans and Other Nationalities Hardest; Mexico to Respond**
On May 11, the U.S. government will end the “Title 42” policy, a measure that has been in place for 38 months under both the Trump and Biden administrations. This policy effectively suspended the right to seek asylum at the U.S.-Mexico border, resulting in 2.8 million migrant expulsions. As the U.S. reverts to pre-pandemic immigration laws, the Biden administration is introducing a new limitation on asylum, which, with Mexico’s cooperation, will continue to send asylum seekers away from the United States, placing many in danger.
Media outlets are predicting a surge in migration at the border, with officials “bracing for an influx” and legislators citing potential “chaos.” However, these concerns may be overstated. While migration is expected to increase, it is unlikely to be a massive or long-lasting surge. Title 42 did not significantly deter migration, as current levels are already near record highs. The Biden administration, in collaboration with the Mexican government, aims to keep asylum out of reach, similar to the past 38 months.
Instead of focusing on a potential “migrant wave,” attention should be directed towards several critical issues:
1. **Asylum Transit Ban**: A new rule, set to go into effect, could endanger thousands of people who will be denied the legal right to seek protection despite being on U.S. soil. The specifics of which nationalities and demographics will be affected remain unclear, but the rule could severely limit asylum access, reminiscent of the Title 42 era.
2. **Stranded Migrants in Mexico**: The López Obrador government has agreed to take back asylum seekers rejected by the U.S., often without a hearing. This will exacerbate the crisis in Mexico’s border cities, where many migrants are already stranded.
3. **Humanitarian Crisis Along Migration Routes**: As new nationalities attempt to traverse dangerous regions like the Darién Gap, the humanitarian crisis is expected to worsen.
4. **Dysfunctional U.S. Asylum System**: The U.S. asylum system remains dysfunctional, and the patchwork of alternative pathways to legal entry is fragile.
The situation at the border post-May 11 may appear disorderly, but it has been so for a long time. The lifting of Title 42 will highlight the urgent need to reform the U.S. immigration system and address the political paralysis hindering progress.
**Title 42: An Aberration**
Title 42, named after a section of the U.S. Code, was implemented in March 2020 by the Trump administration to allow immediate expulsions of undocumented migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border for public health reasons. The Biden administration continued this policy, resulting in over 2.8 million expulsions. While the policy ceased the expulsion of unaccompanied children, it still expelled single adult migrants 64% of the time and family units 22% of the time. Mexico agreed to take back expelled migrants from several countries, including El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela.
**Migration Trends and Future Projections**
Despite being touted as a deterrent, Title 42 did not significantly reduce migration. In 2022, U.S. Border Patrol encountered 1,480,416 individual migrants on 2,206,436 occasions. The pandemic, coupled with instability in the Western Hemisphere, high violent crime rates, de-democratization, and climate change, contributed to the high migration levels. The Darién Gap, once an impenetrable barrier, now sees over 1,000 migrants per day.
While there will likely be an increase in migration around May 11, it is expected to be short-lived. The Biden administration’s new measures to block asylum access may result in a situation similar to the Title 42 period, with high migration levels but no significant increase.
**Changing Nationalities of Migrants**
During the Title 42 period, the nationalities of migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border changed dramatically. In 2020, over 90% of migrants were from Mexico and northern Central America. By 2022, this share dropped to 57%. Migration from South America, particularly Colombia, Peru, and Venezuela, increased sharply, as did migration from countries outside the Americas, such as Turkey, Russia, China, and India.
**New Asylum Restrictions**
The Biden administration plans to implement a new “asylum transit ban” rule, which will deny asylum to many migrants who crossed between ports of entry and passed through other countries without seeking asylum there first. This rule, if aggressively enforced, could result in mass returns of asylum seekers, similar to the Title 42 experience. The legality of this rule is questionable, as it contradicts the right to seek asylum enshrined in U.S. and international law.
**Mexico’s Role**
Mexico has agreed to continue accepting third-country migrants expelled by the U.S. This agreement will further swell the population of migrants in Mexico’s border cities, which are already struggling with high crime rates and limited shelter capacity. The situation in these cities is precarious, with incidents like the formation of squalid encampments and a deadly fire in a Ciudad Juárez detention center highlighting the dangers faced by migrants.
**Alternative Pathways and Systemic Improvements**
Instead of limiting asylum access, the Biden administration could focus on improving the asylum system. This includes increasing resources for processing, alternatives to detention, and adjudication. A well-functioning asylum system would ensure that those who qualify for protection receive it, while those who do not are returned or can access other legal pathways to remain in the U.S.
**Conclusion**
The end of Title 42 and the introduction of new asylum restrictions will have significant impacts on migrants, particularly those from Mexico and other nationalities. The situation at the border will highlight the need for comprehensive immigration reform and increased resources to manage asylum claims effectively. The U.S. and Mexican governments must work together to address the humanitarian crisis and ensure the safety and rights of migrants.
Source: Various News Outlets
