The second phase of the government’s economic plan has started. Along with relieving the Central Bank of its debt to various banks and transferring that burden to the Treasury, the economic team aims to remove a significant amount of pesos from circulation to prevent them from being converted to dollars. To gain further insights, Canal E spoke with economist Pablo Ferrari.
Ferrari noted, “We need to see how long the temporary measures will last. The debts the Central Bank has with the banks will be transferred to the Treasury, which will clean up the Central Bank’s balance sheet.” He added, “The other aspect is that the deadline is being extended. This situation that could potentially lead to an influx of pesos and raise concerns about conversion to dollars won’t happen.”
Starting July 17, 2025, approximately $12 trillion will be removed from circulation. Ferrari explained, “The LEFIs will pay interest and principal at maturity, which is set for July 17, 2025. Therefore, that volume of pesos—roughly $12 trillion—will be out of circulation until that date.” He expressed confidence that if the government’s plan works as intended, this pool of pesos likely won’t convert to dollars.
He mentioned, “The LEFIs are expected to have a capacity of up to $20 trillion.” He elaborated, “About 60% of the LEFIs would be covered by the transfers, leaving the remaining 40% for other matters, possibly including some of the well-known PUTs.”
Ferrari also pointed out that we are currently in a phase of exploration and experimentation. “Everyone is observing what happens next,” he remarked. He further highlighted that, despite government denials, the underlying issue is a clear shortage of dollars.
In closing, he emphasized that the RIGI regulations should be established in the first weeks of August, potentially allowing for the inflow of dollars. However, he cautioned that this relief would only be temporary, as the RIGI would not secure a lasting supply of dollars in the long run.
Source: https://www.perfil.com/noticias/canal-e/para-un-economista-el-diagnostico-de-fondo-por-mas-que-el-gobierno-lo-niegue-es-que-faltan-dolares.phtml
