Hurricane Beryl Update: Projected Path and Impact Areas
Beryl has intensified into a Category 1 hurricane, marking the first named hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. As it advances towards the southeast Caribbean, it is expected to bring high winds and torrential rains. By Sunday morning, Beryl had strengthened into an “extremely dangerous” Category 4 hurricane, making it the first major hurricane east of the Lesser Antilles in June, according to Philip Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University.
Forecasters predict that Beryl will strengthen into a dangerous major hurricane before reaching Barbados and the Windward Islands late Sunday or early Monday. Brian McNoldy, a tropical meteorology researcher at the University of Miami, noted that warm waters are fueling Beryl, with ocean heat content in the deep Atlantic being the highest on record for this time of year. Beryl is the first hurricane in over fifty years to appear before July 4th in the Atlantic basin, with the last being Alma, which hit the Florida Keys on June 8, 1966.
As of 2 p.m. ET, Beryl was located about 310 miles east-southeast of Barbados, with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph, moving west at 21 mph. Hurricane warnings are in effect for Barbados, St. Lucia, Grenada, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Tobago. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for Martinique, while a tropical storm watch is in effect for Dominica and Trinidad. Beryl’s center is forecast to pass about 26 miles south of Barbados, according to Sabu Best, director of the island’s meteorological service.
The center of Beryl is expected to move across the Windward Islands, which include Grenada, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Dominica, and St. Vincent, by Monday, bringing “life-threatening winds and storm surge.” Beryl is forecast to become a major hurricane before it reaches the Windward Islands, according to the hurricane center.
Beryl is expected to drop anywhere from 3 to 6 inches of rain in Barbados and the Windward Islands, with a storm surge of up to seven feet. St. Vincent is expected to receive up to 6 inches of rainfall, while Martinique, Grenada, and Dominica are expected to receive 2 to 4 inches of rain. Beryl is expected to bring life-threatening winds and a storm surge to the Windward Islands starting Sunday night.
Barbados, St. Lucia, St. Vincent, Grenada, the Grenadine Islands, and Tobago are all under a hurricane warning. Martinique is under a tropical storm warning, while Dominica is under a tropical storm watch. Any U.S. impacts are still at least eight days away, and Beryl is expected to remain south of Jamaica.
Hurricane Beryl strengthened Sunday to an extremely dangerous Category 4 storm, with life-threatening winds and storm surge expected in the Caribbean by early Monday, according to the National Hurricane Center. NOAA and Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft data indicated Beryl had strengthened to a Category 4 hurricane Sunday. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 130 mph with higher gusts.
As of the NHC’s 5 p.m. update, Hurricane Beryl was located 250 miles southeast of Barbados and 350 miles east-southeast of St. Vincent, moving west-southwest at 18 mph. A continued quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to move across the Windward Islands Monday morning and across the southeastern and central Caribbean Sea late Monday through Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph with higher gusts. Beryl is a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength are likely during the next day or so, and Beryl is expected to remain an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane through landfall in the Windward Islands. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles.
A hurricane warning is now in effect for Barbados, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands, Grenada, and Tobago. A tropical storm warning is in effect for Martinique. A tropical storm watch is in effect for Dominica, Trinidad, the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward to the border with Haiti, and the south coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d’Hainault.
AccuWeather meteorologists currently don’t expect Beryl to impact Florida and the U.S., but warn residents to not let down their guard. “Direct impacts to the United States look unlikely; however, it is very important to note that if the high pressure across the Southeast weakens, that can allow the storm to move farther north and potentially directly impact the Gulf Coast,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Forecaster Alex DaSilva.
Named storms are rare this early in the season, especially major hurricanes, with Beryl being the eighth storm to form in the Atlantic before July 4, according to AccuWeather. “We’ve seen rapid intensification, Cat 4 and 5 hurricanes before. Southern Windward Islands have been struck before. Just not this insanely early in the season. Ivan in Sep 2004 took dozens of lives there. Please find the strongest possible shelter by tonight,” Weather Channel hurricane expert Dr. Rick Knabb posted on X.
Elsewhere, Invest 94L, a low-pressure system over the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico over the southern portion of the Bay of Campeche, has become better organized during the past few hours, and a tropical depression could be forming. The system is moving toward west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph and is expected to approach the eastern coast of Mexico tonight and move inland on Monday morning. The NHC gives Invest 94L an 80% chance to develop into a named storm over the next 48 hours. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will result in areas of flooding across eastern Mexico today and into Monday.
A system in the Eastern Tropical Atlantic, Invest 96L, located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, is producing an area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week. The NHC gives it a 40% chance of development in the next 48 hours and a 70% chance to develop over the next week. If either of these systems develops, the next named storm will be Chris.
Hurricane Beryl continues to be a Category 4 hurricane with winds of 130 mph and peak wind gusts of 160 mph. The eye of Beryl is 10 nautical miles wide and even has mesovortices within it, both signs of a healthy and well-formed storm. Beryl will retain its Category 4 strength as it makes landfall along the Windward Islands Monday, leading to life-threatening flooding and potentially catastrophic wind damage. As for its future track, Beryl is expected to remain a major hurricane as it approaches Jamaica mid-week and then could weaken slightly to either a Category 1 or 2 storm by the time it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula Friday. Another landfall near Cozumel is possible Friday.
Beyond that, it’s difficult to place where this hurricane will be after Friday. The forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center now includes the Bay of Campeche, but there’s still too much uncertainty with the system’s potential track as it would be in the Gulf of Mexico next weekend. In other words, it’s still too early to tell if Beryl will pose a threat to the Texas coast or Houston next weekend. In the meantime, it’s best to begin thinking about any travel plans you might have around the Fourth of July and thereafter, plus what you might need to do locally in Houston if a storm was headed this way.
Behind Beryl, the other tropical wave in its wake still has a 70% chance of forming over the next 7 days. Additionally, we now have Tropical Storm Chris in the Bay of Campeche. This will be another short-lived system as it’s expected to move into Mexico Monday. The main concern is the heavy rains that could lead to flooding and mudslides in Mexico. Chris poses no threat to the Texas coast or Houston.
Hurricane Beryl is already in the record books, reaching Cat 4 strength late Sunday morning. It becomes the first June hurricane on record to reach Cat 4 strength, a feat made possible by record warm waters. The storm will impact the Windward Islands Monday as a Cat 4 storm and continue west through the Caribbean. By midweek, the storm will be near Jamaica as a major hurricane, and most forecast models bring the storm to the Yucatan Peninsula by Friday. Anyone with travel plans to the Yucatan (including Cozumel, Cancun, Playa Del Carmen, and Tulum) should monitor the weather closely. Beyond that point, models are split on the eventual path, but it is possible the storm can sweep across the Yucatan and move into the Southern Gulf of Mexico. Any specific landfall projections beyond that point would be pure speculation, but we’ll watch it closely as models come into better agreement.
Behind Beryl is another potential storm with a 70% chance of developing, likely to become “Chris” in the coming days. Closer to home in the Southwest Gulf is another area of potential development with 50% development odds, though any impacts from that system will stay well south of our area.
Tropical Storm Beryl is poised to become the first hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season by the end of the day and is forecast to reach Cat 3 “major” hurricane status as it enters the Caribbean early next week. Anyone with travel plans in the Caribbean should stay weather aware through the week ahead. While models in the short term are in fairly good agreement about Beryl’s path into the Caribbean, the long-term outlook remains less certain. At this point, it is unknown if the system will enter the Gulf of Mexico or continue west into Central America.
Another tropical wave closer to home in the southwest Gulf has a 40% chance of development, but will move into Mexico and will not impact Southeast Texas in any way.
Source: CBS News, Associated Press, AccuWeather, Weather Channel
