In a surprising turn of events, a new national poll reveals that Vice President Kamala Harris is leading both former President Donald Trump and current President Joe Biden in the 2024 election race. This development comes amid growing concerns about Biden’s age and mental fitness, as well as the multiple legal challenges Trump is facing.
The NBC News poll, conducted from September 15-19, highlights a significant shift in voter sentiment. Three-quarters of voters expressed concerns about Biden’s age and mental fitness, while nearly two-thirds are worried about Trump’s ongoing trials. Despite these concerns, Trump has expanded his lead in the Republican primary, now holding a more than 40-point advantage over his closest competitor, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
However, the poll also indicates that Biden and Trump are deadlocked in a hypothetical rematch, each garnering 46% of the vote. This tie underscores the electorate’s deep divisions and the challenges both candidates face in securing broad support.
What stands out in the poll is the rising disapproval of Biden’s job performance. His approval rating has hit an all-time low, with fewer than 4 in 10 voters approving of his handling of the economy. This dissatisfaction extends to key parts of the Democratic base, with lagging interest in the election among younger voters, women, and Latinos.
“This survey is a startling flashing red light for an incumbent party,” said Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, who conducted the poll with Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt and his team at Hart Research Associates. Yet, Trump and the Republicans face their own set of challenges, including Trump’s overall unpopularity with the general electorate and his ability to galvanize political opposition.
“Yes, the numbers for Biden aren’t where he needs them to be,” said Horwitt. “But the lens for most voters is still through Donald Trump first.”
The poll reveals that 74% of registered voters have major or moderate concerns about Biden’s mental and physical health, while 62% have similar concerns about Trump due to his legal issues. Additionally, 60% of voters are worried about Biden’s possible involvement in his son Hunter’s business dealings, and 47% have concerns about Trump’s health.
Despite these concerns, Trump has solidified his lead in the GOP race. He is the first-choice pick of 59% of national Republican primary voters, with DeSantis trailing at 16%. Former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Vice President Mike Pence, and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie follow with single-digit support.
Trump’s gains have come from men, seniors, and moderate Republican primary voters. The share of GOP primary voters who believe Trump should continue to lead the Republican Party has increased from 49% in June to 58% now. A combined 86% of Republican primary voters say they are either very satisfied or fairly satisfied with the choice of GOP candidates for president.
Meanwhile, Biden’s disapproval rating has reached a new high. Among registered voters, 41% approve of his job performance, while 56% disapprove. Biden is particularly underwater among younger voters, women, Latinos, and independents. Only 37% of voters approve of his handling of the economy, and 41% approve of his handling of foreign policy.
The poll also shows that nearly 6 in 10 Democratic primary voters want a candidate to challenge Biden for the Democratic nomination in 2024, even though no major intraparty challenger has emerged.
In hypothetical matchups, Biden is tied with Trump but trails Haley by 5 points. Haley overperforms Trump and DeSantis among independents and college-educated voters, though nearly 30% of all voters say they aren’t familiar with her.
In a multi-candidate field including third parties, Trump gets 39% of the vote, Biden gets 36%, an unnamed Libertarian Party nominee gets 5%, an unnamed No Labels candidate gets 5%, and an unnamed Green Party candidate gets 4%.
Interest in the 2024 elections remains high, with 67% of voters expressing strong interest. However, this is lower than the same point before the 2020 election but higher than in the 2016 cycle. A greater share of Republican voters (75%) than Democratic voters (68%) have high interest in the upcoming election.
Other key findings in the poll include Biden’s net favorability rating being higher than Trump’s and Vice President Kamala Harris’. In the Biden vs. Trump hypothetical matchup, a majority of Biden voters say their vote is more against Trump than for Biden, while a majority of Trump voters say their vote is more for Trump than against Biden.
The poll also reveals that voting preference for next year’s congressional elections is essentially tied, with 46% of voters preferring a Democratic-controlled Congress and 45% preferring Republicans. Additionally, a majority of voters oppose the House Republican impeachment inquiry into Biden.
The national NBC News poll was conducted with 1,000 registered voters, including 848 contacted by cell phone, and has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. The margin of error for the 321 Republican primary voters in the survey is plus or minus 5.5 percentage points.
As the 2024 election approaches, the political landscape remains highly fluid, with Vice President Kamala Harris emerging as a potential frontrunner. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether she can maintain her lead and how the dynamics between Biden and Trump will evolve.
Source: NBC News, Washington Post, ABC News
