In a surprising turn of events, former First Lady Michelle Obama has reportedly declined to support President Joe Biden’s re-election campaign, citing private frustrations. This development comes amid growing concerns within the Democratic Party about Biden’s viability as a candidate for the 2024 presidential election.
The Democratic Party is currently grappling with a series of troubling poll numbers that suggest Biden may struggle to secure a second term. A recent New York Times/Siena College poll indicated that Biden is trailing behind former President Donald Trump in five out of six key swing states that were crucial to his 2020 victory. This has led to a wave of anxiety among Democratic strategists and party officials.
David Axelrod, a key architect of Barack Obama’s 2008 presidential campaign, has publicly suggested that Biden should consider stepping aside to allow a more electable candidate to take the helm. Axelrod’s comments have added fuel to the fire, intensifying the debate within the party about Biden’s candidacy.
One of the most alarming signs for Democrats is the erosion of support among Black voters, a demographic that has traditionally been a cornerstone of the party’s base. In 2020, Black voters favored Biden over Trump by a margin of 78 percentage points. However, the recent poll shows that this margin has shrunk to 49 points. Democratic pollster Terrance Woodbury has noted that young and Black voters are increasingly frustrated by the administration’s focus on foreign aid at the expense of domestic issues.
Despite these concerns, Biden’s campaign team remains optimistic. Jim Messina, who managed Obama’s re-election campaign in 2012, has downplayed the significance of the current poll numbers, arguing that they are not particularly meaningful at this stage of the race. He pointed out that Obama faced similarly bleak poll numbers in 2011 but went on to defeat Mitt Romney in the 2012 election.
Biden’s campaign manager, Julie Chavez Rodriguez, has emphasized the strength of the campaign’s operation, which aims to mobilize the coalition of voters that secured Biden’s victory in 2020. However, this reassurance has done little to quell the growing unease within the party.
A senior Democratic aide described the situation as a “five-alarm fire,” highlighting the party’s deep bench of potential candidates who could run and win but are currently sidelined. Representative Debbie Dingell of Michigan has urged Biden to spend more time in key battleground states like Michigan, where Trump is currently leading by five percentage points.
Biden’s economic message, centered around “Bidenomics,” has also failed to resonate with voters. Polls indicate that a significant portion of the electorate believes Republicans are better equipped to manage the economy. Representative Ro Khanna of California has criticized the party’s failure to lead on economic issues, given Biden’s record and the Republicans’ focus on tax breaks for the wealthy and cuts to education.
The situation has been further complicated by the recent conflict between Israel and Hamas. Biden’s support for Israel has sparked a backlash within the party, with several progressive lawmakers calling for a ceasefire. This internal division echoes the Vietnam War-era debates that led to President Lyndon Johnson’s decision not to seek re-election in 1968.
A former Iowa Democratic official has warned that the ongoing conflict could lead to a nationwide effort to force Biden out of office. The official expressed concern that the killing of children in Palestine could ignite widespread opposition to Biden’s candidacy.
Despite these challenges, the structural barriers to replacing Biden as the Democratic nominee are significant. Filing deadlines for key primary states have already passed, and the Democratic National Committee (DNC) is firmly aligned with Biden. Any attempt to change the nominee at this stage would be messy, untested, and likely to result in litigation.
If Biden were to step aside, Vice President Kamala Harris would be the natural successor. However, her low approval ratings could lead to a contested primary, potentially alienating Black voters and dividing the party ahead of the general election.
Representative Ro Khanna has dismissed the idea of finding a more viable candidate, arguing that Biden remains the strongest contender in swing states. He challenged critics to present a candidate who could outperform Biden in these crucial areas.
Nevertheless, some Democrats believe that a Biden-less ballot might be the party’s best chance for victory. A progressive leader warned that if Biden loses to Trump, he would be remembered as having been incredibly selfish and potentially dooming democracy.
As the Democratic Party navigates these turbulent waters, the absence of Michelle Obama’s support adds another layer of complexity to an already fraught situation. Her decision to stay on the sidelines underscores the deep-seated frustrations and uncertainties that currently plague the party.
Source: NBC News, Salon
