Former President Barack Obama has offered cautious advice to President Joe Biden following a shaky debate performance and the looming possibility of a rematch with former President Donald Trump. This comes amid a new Reuters/Ipsos poll indicating that former First Lady Michelle Obama is the leading candidate to take on Trump in 2024, surpassing both Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris in voter preference.
The poll, conducted after last week’s presidential debate, asked respondents who they would like to see on the general election ballot against Trump. Michelle Obama emerged as the only Democrat capable of securing enough votes to beat Trump, leading him by 11 percentage points with 50% of the vote compared to Trump’s 39%.
The poll results have added to the growing concerns within the Democratic Party about Biden’s viability as the 2024 nominee. Despite being the current nominee, Biden’s performance in recent debates and his age have raised questions about his ability to secure re-election. The Washington Post reported that Barack Obama recently told supporters that Biden’s path to re-election has become more challenging since the debate.
Vice President Kamala Harris has also seen a rise in her standing among potential Democratic replacements, but she did not receive enough support to surpass Trump in the latest survey. According to the poll, 42% of respondents said they would vote for Harris, while 43% favored Trump.
Biden’s campaign has been grappling with these concerns, even as they roll out a $25 million early advertising effort aimed at bolstering his standing in battleground states. Despite this, several post-debate polls have shown Biden dropping from the list of prospective candidates to represent the Democratic Party in 2024. In a hypothetical match-up, Biden tied with Trump, with both candidates receiving 40% of the vote. However, more voters indicated they would either choose a different candidate or abstain from voting if Biden were the nominee.
Other potential Democratic replacements, such as California Governor Gavin Newsom, were also featured in the survey. Newsom received 39% support, compared to 42% for Trump. The poll, conducted just days after the first presidential debate, revealed that 56% of registered voters think Biden should drop out of the race.
The Biden campaign has been working to address these concerns through a combination of early advertising and strategic planning. Despite some internal disagreements about the allocation of resources, Biden’s top advisers remain united on the strategy and are pleased with the early responses to the ads among key targeted groups. They argue that the criticism is typical Democratic “bed-wetting,” which they believe was proven wrong in the 2022 midterm elections when Democrats outperformed expectations.
Biden’s early embrace of advertising, though unconventional, is seen as a necessary move to reach voters in a fragmented media environment. The ads have been used to test the most effective sales pitches with different demographic groups, such as Black and Latino voters. The campaign plans to expand its organizing efforts in key states like Arizona and Wisconsin next month.
Campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez emphasized the importance of mobilizing the Democratic coalition and laying the groundwork for a successful campaign in 2024. She stated that the campaign is well-funded and building on years of Democratic National Committee investments with innovative organizing tactics and targeted advertisements.
At the heart of the Democratic conflict over Biden’s strategy is a debate about how much the traditional blueprint for presidential campaigns needs to change. Some strategists argue that the current strategy is an acceptable, if somewhat untested, departure from the norm. Others have expressed concerns over the “Bidenomics” message, which ties the sales pitch to a political brand that polls poorly on the economy.
Joel Benenson, a former pollster for the Obama and Clinton presidential campaigns, recently published an essay comparing Biden’s predicament to the 2012 race. He argued that Biden must be seen as someone who understands the economic realities of voters. Benenson noted that while there are advantages and disadvantages to early advertising, it provides an opportunity to get a potent message to working and middle-class people when no one else is on the airwaves.
Biden aides acknowledge that the level of ad spending is not designed to make a significant dent in Biden’s polling problems immediately. However, they believe the ads lay the groundwork for polling movement next year. Biden, who is briefed weekly by his senior campaign team, has about the same national approval numbers as Trump and Obama at this point in their presidencies.
In private conversations, Biden has expressed frustration about his low poll numbers and acknowledged that voters’ concerns about his age are a significant factor in his approval rating. However, his advisers argue that traditional measures like presidential approval and favorability will matter less in 2024 than in past cycles. They point to recent special elections and the 2022 midterms as evidence that Biden’s strategy can succeed.
The Biden campaign’s current ad budget is just a fraction of what they expect to raise and spend next year. Between June 1 and Election Day in 2020, the Biden campaign spent about $608 million on advertising. Many Democrats expect the total funds for the 2024 presidential race, including from outside groups, to approach $2 billion by the end of next year.
Despite the challenges, Biden’s team remains focused on building a robust campaign infrastructure. They plan to hire field organizers at a slower pace than previous campaigns and are embracing new techniques, such as programs to encourage volunteers to directly contact family and friends. The campaign is also testing shifts in media consumption, with a significant portion of ads being viewed on television screens via YouTube.
As the 2024 election approaches, the Biden campaign is determined to refine its strategy and messaging to resonate with voters. The early advertising effort is seen as a down payment on a larger communications program that will be crucial in the months leading up to the election.
Source: Reuters, Ipsos, Washington Post, Fox News Digital
