A recent poll reveals that 40% of Democrats are eager to replace President Joe Biden as the party’s nominee for the 2024 election following a recent debate. This sentiment underscores growing concerns about Biden’s age and mental fitness, which have been a recurring theme among voters. The poll, conducted by NBC News, highlights a broader unease about the upcoming presidential election, with both Biden and former President Donald Trump facing significant challenges.
The poll, conducted from September 15-19, shows that three-quarters of voters are worried about Biden’s age and mental acuity. Specifically, 59% of registered voters have major concerns, while 15% have moderate concerns about Biden’s ability to serve a second term at the age of 80. This apprehension is not limited to Biden; 62% of voters also express concerns about Trump, who faces multiple criminal and civil trials.
Biden’s job performance is another area of concern. His disapproval rating has reached an all-time high, with only 41% of registered voters approving of his performance. This dissatisfaction extends to his handling of the economy, with fewer than 4 in 10 voters expressing approval. Key Democratic demographics, including younger voters, women, and Latinos, show waning interest in the election, which could spell trouble for Biden’s re-election bid.
Despite these challenges, Trump is not without his own issues. While he has expanded his lead in the Republican primary, his overall unpopularity with the general electorate remains a significant hurdle. Trump’s legal troubles and the polarizing effect he has on voters also complicate his path to the presidency.
The poll indicates that Biden and Trump are deadlocked in a hypothetical rematch, each garnering 46% of the vote. This tie persists despite Biden’s struggles with key voter groups and Trump’s legal woes. Interestingly, Biden leads Trump among Black voters, younger voters, and women, while Trump has the edge among rural voters, men, and white voters without a college degree.
One of the most striking findings is that nearly 6 in 10 Democratic primary voters want a new candidate to challenge Biden for the nomination. This sentiment is driven by concerns about Biden’s age and performance, as well as a desire for fresh leadership. However, no major intraparty challenger has emerged, leaving Biden as the likely nominee for now.
The poll also explores hypothetical matchups with other Republican candidates. Biden holds a narrow lead over Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, but trails former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley by 5 points. Haley’s performance among independents and college-educated voters suggests she could be a formidable opponent in the general election.
In a multi-candidate field, Trump leads with 39% of the vote, followed by Biden at 36%. Third-party candidates, including those from the Libertarian and Green parties, collectively garner 14% of the vote. This fragmentation could play a crucial role in the election, potentially siphoning votes from the major party candidates.
Voter interest in the 2024 election is high, with 67% of voters expressing strong interest. However, this is lower than the interest levels seen at the same point before the 2020 election. Republican voters show higher levels of interest compared to Democrats, which could impact voter turnout.
Biden’s favorability rating stands at 39% positive and 49% negative, slightly better than Trump’s 35% positive and 54% negative rating. Vice President Kamala Harris fares worse, with a 31% positive and 51% negative rating. These numbers highlight the challenges both Biden and Trump face in winning over the electorate.
The poll also delves into voter preferences for the 2024 congressional elections, showing a nearly even split between those who prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress and those who favor Republican control. This balance underscores the competitive nature of the upcoming election cycle.
The House Republican impeachment inquiry into Biden is another contentious issue. A majority of voters, 56%, oppose the hearings, while 39% support them. This division reflects the broader polarization in American politics.
The NBC News poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. The margin of error for the 321 Republican primary voters in the survey is plus or minus 5.5 percentage points.
In summary, the poll paints a complex picture of the 2024 presidential race. While Biden and Trump remain the frontrunners, significant concerns about their age, mental fitness, and overall performance persist. The desire for new leadership among Democrats and the potential impact of third-party candidates add further uncertainty to an already unpredictable election.
Source: NBC News, PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist Poll, Ipsos, Morning Consult, YouGov
