Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has dismissed the notion that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban could mediate between Russia and Ukraine to end Moscow’s full-scale invasion. This statement came as Orban traveled to Beijing, continuing what he calls “peace mission 3.0.” Orban’s recent diplomatic efforts included visits to Kyiv and Moscow, following Hungary’s assumption of the EU Council presidency on July 1. However, EU and U.S. officials have emphasized that Orban is not representing the bloc in these endeavors.
In a letter to European Council President Charles Michel dated July 5, Orban expressed optimism about the potential for a cease-fire and peace talks based on his discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin. However, Mike Carpenter, a senior adviser for Europe with the White House National Security Council, criticized Orban’s meeting with Putin, stating it was not supportive of Ukraine’s sovereignty or territorial integrity.
Michel reiterated that the EU’s rotating presidency has no mandate to engage with Russia on behalf of the EU and reaffirmed the EU’s stance that Russia is the aggressor in the war in Ukraine. Orban, in his letter, suggested that the EU should consider launching a European initiative for peace, citing limited U.S. leadership due to the ongoing presidential election campaign.
Speaking at a news conference in Poland, Zelenskiy emphasized that only powerful countries with significantly stronger armed forces than Russia could effectively mediate peace talks. He mentioned the U.S., China, and the entire EU as potential intermediaries. Zelenskiy also stated that any peace proposals should align with Ukraine’s vision, particularly a 10-point peace plan that insists on Ukraine’s territorial integrity.
Putin has set conditions for ending the war, including Kyiv renouncing its desire to join NATO and ceding Crimea and four other occupied regions of Ukraine. Orban, in his letter to Michel, noted that Putin still considers relevant the document from peace talks in April 2022 in Turkey, which includes international security guarantees for Ukraine.
Orban also highlighted that Putin’s interpretation of the situation on the front line differs significantly from Zelenskiy’s. According to Orban, Putin believes that time favors Russian forces and estimates Ukraine’s losses at 40,000 to 50,000 soldiers per month. Putin was reportedly surprised by Zelenskiy’s rejection of a temporary cease-fire, with Russia ready to consider any cease-fire proposal that does not serve to relocate and reorganize Ukrainian forces.
Ukraine does not release data on casualties, but Zelenskiy previously stated that 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers had died in the war by February 25, rejecting Moscow’s higher estimates. Orban also mentioned a Chinese-Brazilian peace proposal under consideration by Russia, which includes an international peace conference at an appropriate time with equal participation from both Ukraine and Russia.
After meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, Orban wrote another letter to Michel, confirming that China’s peace policy, based on principles of no expansion, no escalation, and no provocation, will remain in place. Orban added that Xi considers it likely that the next round of international peace talks will occur before the end of the year, contingent on the participation of both sides.
Orban’s diplomatic efforts come amid a complex backdrop of ongoing military actions and geopolitical maneuvers. Ukrainian forces recently conducted a drone strike against a Russian ammunition depot in Sergeevka, Voronezh Oblast, and a successful strike against a Russian regimental command post in Belgorod Oblast. These actions demonstrate Ukraine’s capability to disrupt Russian operations using Western-provided weapons.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian drone operators are improving their ability to intercept longer-range Russian drones, potentially easing pressures on short-range and medium-range air defense assets. This technological innovation could degrade Russia’s reconnaissance capabilities while conserving more expensive air defense interceptors for significant Russian air targets.
In another development, Chechen “Akhmat” Spetsnaz forces coerced a Russian milblogger to issue a public apology after he criticized them, highlighting unprofessionalism within the Russian military. The milblogger had insinuated that “Akhmat” forces were not contributing to frontline operations, leading to a forced retraction and apology.
As the conflict continues, the Russian government is also taking steps to isolate its population from material deemed antithetical to state interests. This includes blocking access to VPN services and prohibiting the use of foreign-based Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) accounts.
The situation remains fluid, with ongoing military engagements and diplomatic efforts shaping the future of the conflict. Orban’s attempts to position himself as a mediator are part of a broader strategy to shift Western focus towards peace negotiations, despite Putin’s apparent disinterest in any agreement short of Ukraine’s capitulation.
Source: Reuters, RFE/RL
