Ever since it was announced that “ShÅgun” would be competing at the Emmys as a continuing drama series instead of a limited series, it has been climbing in the Emmy odds across multiple categories. According to the combined predictions of Gold Derby users, the FX historical series is now the front-runner to win Best Drama Series, Best Drama Actress for Anna Sawai, and Best Drama Actor for Hiroyuki Sanada. The question on everyone’s mind is whether Sanada now has a better chance of taking home the trophy than former favorite Gary Oldman from “Slow Horses.”
Sanada currently holds leading odds of 4/1 for his performance as Yoshii Toranaga, a character embroiled in a life-or-death battle for power against fellow feudal lords. His chances are bolstered by the predictions of nine out of 16 expert journalists from major media outlets and nine out of 11 Gold Derby editors who cover awards year-round. Among the Top 24 Users on Gold Derby, 18 are betting on Sanada, and 16 out of the All-Star Top 24 also give him the edge.
However, Sanada’s victory is not guaranteed. Gary Oldman, an Oscar winner, still has significant support from six experts, one editor, four top users, and six All-Stars. One key difference between “ShÅgun” and “Slow Horses” is that the latter has already been tested at the Emmys, being eligible in 2022 and 2023 but failing to receive a single nomination. None of the Best Drama Actor nominees from 2022 or 2023 are eligible to return in 2024, as their shows have either ended or are on hiatus. This makes it the best chance yet for Apple TV+’s spy drama “Slow Horses.” However, it also presents an opportunity for a new show like “ShÅgun” to make a strong impression if it proves as popular with voters as Gold Derby users generally think it will.
The state of the race will become clearer once the nominations are announced on July 17. The competition for Best Drama Actor is particularly fierce this year, with other strong contenders like Cosmo Jarvis, Walton Goggins, Dominic West, and Morgan Spector also in the mix. This year, the lead drama actor category has 81 submissions, which barely cleared the required threshold, allowing for six nominees.
Among the contenders are the two “ShÅgun” leading men, Cosmo Jarvis and Hiroyuki Sanada, along with Tom Hiddleston from Disney’s “Loki” and Donald Glover from “Mr. and Mrs. Smith.” Even a few longshots are throwing their hats in the ring, such as John Leguizamo from “The Green Veil,” who recently wrote an open letter to Emmy voters via a full-page ad in the New York Times.
Jarvis and Sanada are poised for lead drama actor nominations, injecting fresh energy into a category that was begging for excitement. Pundits are divided between Gary Oldman from “Slow Horses” and Dominic West from “The Crown,” both of whom have never received nods for their roles. Sanada could make history by becoming the second Asian actor nominated after Lee Jung-Jae, who won for “Squid Game” in 2022.
Nominations-round voting is open from June 13 and closes on June 24 at 10:00 p.m. PT. Voting for peer group-specific top ten round panels, if applicable, takes place between June 28 and July 8. The Emmy nominations will be announced on July 17, with the Creative Arts and Governors Gala ceremonies occurring over two nights on September 7-8. The 76th Primetime Emmy Awards will air on ABC on Sunday, September 15.
The race for Best Drama Actor is shaping up to be one of the most exciting categories this year. With Hiroyuki Sanada leading the odds, it will be interesting to see if he can maintain his position and ultimately take home the trophy. As the Emmy nominations draw closer, all eyes will be on “ShÅgun” and its cast to see if they can live up to the high expectations set by Gold Derby users and industry experts alike.
Source: Gold Derby, Variety
