President Joe Biden’s recent debate performance has sparked a wave of concern within his own party, leading some Democrats to question whether he should be replaced on the ballot before the upcoming election. Despite these concerns, there is no indication that Biden is willing to end his campaign, and replacing him would be a complex and nearly impossible task unless he voluntarily steps aside.
The delegates Biden secured during the primaries are pledged to support him at the Democratic National Convention. According to Democratic rules, these delegates must reflect the sentiments of those who elected them unless Biden himself decides to leave the race. Biden has shown no intention of doing so, as evidenced by his remarks to supporters in Atlanta and statements from his campaign spokesperson, Lauren Hitt, who confirmed that Biden is not dropping out.
The Democratic National Committee (DNC) could theoretically change the rules before the convention, but this is unlikely as long as Biden remains committed to seeking reelection. The current rules stipulate that delegates elected to the national convention must, in good conscience, reflect the sentiments of those who elected them.
Vice President Kamala Harris, while being Biden’s running mate, cannot automatically replace him at the top of the ticket. If Biden were to leave the race, Harris would likely join other top Democratic candidates in lobbying for support from individual state delegations at the convention. This scenario hasn’t occurred for Democrats since 1960, when John F. Kennedy and Lyndon B. Johnson competed for votes during the Democratic convention in Los Angeles.
Other potential Democratic candidates, such as California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, and California Rep. Ro Khanna, would also face significant challenges. Additionally, those who Biden bested during the 2020 presidential primary, including Sens. Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Amy Klobuchar, as well as Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, might consider running again.
If Biden were to abruptly leave the race, conservative groups have suggested they would file lawsuits questioning the legality of the Democratic candidate’s name on the ballot. However, Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and a member of the DNC’s rulemaking arm, noted that courts have consistently stayed out of political primaries as long as parties weren’t contradicting constitutional rights, such as voter suppression based on race.
Biden launched his candidacy for president in 2019 with a focus on fighting for the soul of the nation. Since then, he has achieved significant victories, including defeating President Donald Trump in the 2020 election, leading a Democratic rebuff of Trump’s allies in the 2022 midterms, and overseeing the prosecution of the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection. Biden has governed from the center, passing important domestic legislation and managing foreign policy challenges, such as aiding Ukraine without involving the U.S. in a war.
Despite his accomplishments, there are concerns about Biden’s age. He would be 82 at the start of a second term, and a recent Associated Press-NORC poll found that 77 percent of the public, including 69 percent of Democrats, believe he is too old to be effective for another four years. Voters would likely focus on his running mate, Harris, who has a lower approval rating than Biden and has struggled to gain traction within the party and the country.
Biden could consider a more open vice-presidential selection process to find a stronger running mate. Potential alternatives include Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo. However, breaking up the ticket could alienate key constituencies, such as Black women, and make Biden more vulnerable.
Some politicians who know Biden well believe that if he were convinced Trump was truly vanquished, he might feel he had accomplished his political mission. Biden has never been good at saying no, and his decision to run again may hinge on his belief that he is the best candidate to defeat Trump and save the country from a potential revenge presidency.
Biden has another chance to say no, this time to himself, by withdrawing from the 2024 race. This decision would allow other Democrats, including Harris, to test themselves in primaries and see if they have the qualities needed for presidential leadership. Currently, there is no clear alternative to Biden, which might be a deciding factor for him. However, trusting in democracy to discover new leadership could be a wise choice.
Biden has evolved as president, becoming more focused and strategic. As Franklin Foer writes in “The Last Politician,” Biden will be remembered as the “old hack who could.” Time is running out for Biden to make a decision, and it will soon be too late for other Democrats to step forward.
In conclusion, swapping Biden for anyone other than Harris would be a major issue for Democrats. The complexities of replacing a sitting president, the potential for internal party conflict, and the lack of a clear alternative all contribute to the challenges the Democratic Party faces. Biden must have an honest conversation with himself and the country about whether he should run again, as the decision will significantly impact the 2024 campaign and the party’s ability to defeat Trump.
Source: Associated Press, CNN
