Tropical Storm Beryl formed Friday evening east of the Caribbean islands in the tropical Atlantic and is expected to strengthen into a hurricane as it heads west toward the Caribbean. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has been tracking this system, formerly Tropical Depression 2, for development over the last few days. Satellite imagery on Friday indicated the system had gained enough organization to be classified as a tropical storm. Once sustained wind speeds reach at least 74 mph, the cyclone will be classified as a hurricane.
Tropical Storm Beryl is located in the tropical Atlantic less than 1,100 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands and is not a threat to any landmasses during the next 36 hours. The latest stats for Beryl show it moving westward at 18 mph with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. The storm is expected to continue strengthening over the next few days and become a hurricane as it continues to move west, likely reaching the Windward Islands by the end of the weekend. Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watches could be required for portions of that region within the next 24 hours, the NHC adds.
On the projected track, Beryl is expected to intensify into a hurricane before reaching the Caribbean islands and weaken late next week. “Typically, the atmospheric environment is unfavorable for intensification in this portion of the Atlantic basin in late June. However, the overall atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear conducive for steady strengthening during the next few days,” NHC forecasters stated. Depending on where the cyclone strengthens into a hurricane, it could become one of the furthest east-forming hurricanes on record, as systems usually wait until the Caribbean or the Gulf of Mexico to become a Category 1 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
A disturbance a couple of hundred miles east of Beryl is south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible early next week as it moves generally westward across the central and western tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph, according to the NHC. It currently has a medium chance of development over the next week.
Another disturbance dubbed Invest 94L is moving through the Caribbean toward Central America and southern Mexico, bringing the possibility of heavy and dangerous rainfall. The NHC is giving this system a medium chance of developing. If it does, it would likely be in the far western Caribbean or the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico if the system survives its trek across land. “On the current schedule, the disturbance will impact Central America and move into the southern Gulf over the weekend,” explained FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross. “High pressure across the southern U.S. should keep the system well to the south.”
Tropical Storm Beryl formed late Friday with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph, one of only a few storms in history that have formed over the central or eastern tropical Atlantic this early in the year, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center. Beryl is the second named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. According to the NHC’s 11 p.m. update, the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located 1,110 miles east-southeast of Barbados and moving west at 18 mph. A relatively quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center.
On the forecast track, the system is expected to move across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday. Beryl is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands, bringing a risk of heavy rainfall, hurricane-force winds, and dangerous storm surge and waves. Swells generated by the system are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Two other tropical waves in the Atlantic basin, including Invest 94L in the Caribbean, currently have medium chances for development, according to the Hurricane Center. Saharan dust, which is moving west over the Atlantic, makes it difficult for storms to develop as it steals the moist air storms need to develop. But Tropical Storm Beryl is in the “sweet spot” as it travels west across the Atlantic. “This feature is tracking south of a zone of dry air, dust, and stiff disruptive breezes called wind shear,” AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said. “Should the system stay in the moist zone and away from large land areas, it has the potential to ramp up quickly — perhaps to a major hurricane (sustained winds of 111-129 mph),” AccuWeather said.
Historically high ocean temperatures aren’t helping. “This exceptional warmth may also trigger the rapid strengthening of tropical systems as the season progresses. When rapid strengthening occurs near land, it may cause dangers to lives and property to increase exponentially with little notice,” AccuWeather said.
Recent tropical activity unusual for this time of year. “Storms typically do not strengthen regularly over the main hurricane development zone until mid-August or later,” according to AccuWeather. “The period from late June through much of July is typically quiet with only one or two named systems by mid- to late July.”
Since becoming a depression earlier this afternoon, deep convection has continued to burst with infrared satellite imagery depicting cold cloud tops down to -80C. The center of circulation remains on the eastern side of the deep convection, but the system is gradually becoming better organized with banding features and better vertical alignment. Intensity estimates have increased this cycle with subjective Dvorak estimates of T2.0/T2.5 from SAB and TAFB, respectively. Objective Dvorak estimates from UW-CIMSS are around 39-41 mph as well. Using a blend of these estimates, the initial intensity for this advisory is set to 40 mph, and the depression has strengthened into Tropical Storm Beryl.
Tropical Storm Beryl is one of only a few storms in history that have formed over the central or eastern tropical Atlantic this early in the year, according to the NHC. Tropical Storm Beryl is moving westward at 18 mph, steered by a strong subtropical ridge to the north. This should keep Beryl moving swiftly westward to west-northwestward during the next few days, with the model guidance remaining tightly clustered as the system moves towards the Windward Islands. There is a little more spread in the model guidance beyond day 3, when the system nears a weakness in the subtropical ridge. The NHC track forecast lies near the consensus aids near the middle of the guidance envelope and is very similar to the previous forecast track. Based on this forecast, the system is expected to move across the Windward Islands Sunday night and Monday and track across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea through the middle of next week.
Atmospheric and oceanic conditions, atypical for this time of year, are fairly favorable for strengthening the next few days with warm sea surface temperatures, plenty of moisture, and low vertical wind shear. Thus, the NHC intensity forecast calls for steady strengthening and shows the system becoming a hurricane before it reaches the Windward Islands. The NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous advisory. It should be noted that some of the model guidance is still quite aggressive and a fair amount are even higher than the official forecast. Some hurricane regional models and consensus aids show the system becoming a major hurricane prior to reaching the Windward Islands.
“Depending on steering breezes, the system may push westward across Central America later next week or turn northwestward and reach the western Gulf of Mexico next weekend, where it would become a concern for the United States,” according to AccuWeather. Forecasters recommended residents in the Caribbean, Central America, and the Gulf Coast of the U.S. monitor the system closely.
A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea continues to produce widespread but disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Development of this low is not anticipated before it moves inland over the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday. The system is then forecast to move west-northwestward, emerging over the Bay of Campeche Saturday night or early Sunday, where conditions appear generally conducive for further development. A tropical depression could form before the system moves inland again early next week over Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall associated with the area of low pressure will affect portions of Central America and Mexico through early next week.
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
Residents in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the progress of this system. Users are reminded that there is large uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and to not focus on the specific details of the track or intensity forecast. Residents in the Windward Islands could experience heavy rainfall, hurricane-force winds, and dangerous storm surge and waves. Swells generated by the system are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall associated with the area of low pressure will affect portions of Central America and Mexico through early next week.
Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared. That advice is particularly important for what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.
Source: FOX Weather, AccuWeather, National Hurricane Center
