The Trump administration has been considering the possibility of conducting the first U.S. nuclear test explosion since 1992. This move, if executed, would have significant implications for international relations with other nuclear powers and would mark a departure from a decades-long moratorium on such tests. The discussions were confirmed by a senior administration official and two former officials familiar with the matter.
The topic was brought up during a meeting of senior officials from top national security agencies on May 15. The meeting followed accusations from U.S. administration officials that Russia and China are conducting low-yield nuclear tests. These claims, however, have not been substantiated by publicly available evidence and have been denied by both Russia and China.
A senior administration official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, mentioned that demonstrating the U.S.’s ability to conduct a “rapid test” could be advantageous from a negotiating standpoint. This could potentially pressure Moscow and Beijing into a trilateral agreement to regulate the nuclear arsenals of the world’s largest nuclear powers. President Trump defended the decision to withdraw from a 30-year-old treaty aimed at reducing the risk of an accidental U.S.-Russia war.
The meeting did not result in an agreement to conduct a nuclear test, but the proposal remains an ongoing conversation, according to a senior administration official. Another individual familiar with the meeting indicated that a decision was made to take alternative measures in response to perceived threats from Russia and China, thereby avoiding a resumption of nuclear testing. The National Security Council declined to comment on the matter.
During the meeting, there were significant disagreements, particularly from the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), an agency responsible for ensuring the safety of the nation’s nuclear weapons stockpile. The NNSA did not respond to requests for comment.
The United States has not conducted a nuclear test explosion since September 1992. Nuclear nonproliferation advocates have warned that resuming such tests could have destabilizing consequences. Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, stated that it could prompt other nuclear-armed countries to follow suit, potentially igniting an unprecedented nuclear arms race. It could also disrupt negotiations with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, who might no longer feel compelled to honor his moratorium on nuclear testing.
Since 1945, at least eight countries have collectively conducted about 2,000 nuclear tests, with more than 1,000 of those tests carried out by the United States. The environmental and health-related consequences of nuclear testing led to a near-global moratorium on testing in this century, with North Korea being the notable exception. Concerns about the dangers of testing prompted over 184 nations to sign the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), an agreement that will not enter into force until ratified by eight key states, including the United States.
President Barack Obama supported the ratification of the CTBT in 2009 but did not achieve this goal. The Trump administration stated in its 2018 Nuclear Posture Review that it would not seek ratification. Despite this, major nuclear powers have adhered to the treaty’s core prohibition on testing. However, the United States has recently alleged that Russia and China have violated the “zero yield” standard with extremely low-yield or underground tests, not the many-kiloton yield tests associated with the Cold War. Both Russia and China deny these allegations.
Since establishing a moratorium on testing in the early 1990s, the United States has ensured the readiness of its nuclear weapons through subcritical tests—blasts that do not produce a nuclear chain reaction but can test components of a weapon. U.S. nuclear weapons facilities have also developed advanced computer simulation technologies to model nuclear tests and ensure the arsenal’s readiness.
The primary purpose of nuclear tests has traditionally been to check the reliability of an existing arsenal or to test new weapon designs. Each year, top U.S. officials, including the heads of national nuclear labs and the commander of U.S. Strategic Command, must certify the safety and reliability of the stockpile without testing. The Trump administration has stated that it is not pursuing new nuclear weapons but reserves the right to do so if Russia and China refuse to negotiate on their programs.
The deliberations over a nuclear test explosion come as the Trump administration prepares to exit the Treaty on Open Skies, a nearly 30-year-old pact designed to reduce the chances of an accidental war by allowing mutual reconnaissance flights among its 34 member countries. This planned withdrawal is another example of the erosion of the global arms-control framework that Washington and Moscow painstakingly negotiated during the Cold War. The Trump administration has already pulled out of a 1987 pact with Russia governing intermediate-range missiles and withdrew from a 2015 nuclear accord with Iran, citing Tehran’s non-compliance.
The primary remaining pillar of the arms-control framework between the United States and Russia is the New START pact, which limits strategic nuclear platforms. The Trump administration has been pushing for a follow-on agreement that includes China, but China has so far rejected calls for talks.
Marshall Billingslea, Trump’s presidential envoy for arms control, warned that China is in the midst of a significant buildup of its nuclear arsenal and intends to use these forces to intimidate the United States and its allies. One U.S. official suggested that a nuclear test could pressure China into joining a trilateral agreement with the United States and Russia. However, some nonproliferation advocates argue that such a move is risky. Daryl Kimball cautioned that if the administration believes that nuclear brinkmanship will coerce negotiating partners into making unilateral concessions, it is a dangerous ploy.
Source: The Washington Post, C-SPAN
