Former President Donald Trump has expanded his lead over President Joe Biden, now standing at 49% to 43% among likely voters, according to the latest New York Times/Siena College poll. This marks a three-point swing in Trump’s favor since the recent debate and represents his largest lead in this survey since 2015.
The significance of this poll cannot be overstated, especially among Democratic elites who have been increasingly anxious about Biden’s candidacy following his poor debate performance. The release of this highly anticipated poll coincided with a campaign call where Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris sought to reassure their staff about the state of Biden’s campaign. “I am running. I am the leader of the Democratic Party. No one is pushing me out. I’ve been knocked down before and counted out my whole life. When you get knocked down you get back up,” Biden declared defiantly.
The poll, conducted by telephone from June 28 to July 2, also found that Trump’s lead is even larger among registered voters, standing at 49% to 41%. A staggering 74% of voters believe Biden is too old to be an effective president, a five-point increase since before the debate. This sentiment is shared by 79% of independent voters, 59% of Democrats, and a majority across all demographic, geographic, and ideological groups surveyed.
Interestingly, more voters overall believe Biden should remain the nominee, a view likely driven by Republicans who see Biden as a weakened opponent. However, Biden’s campaign preemptively labeled the Times/Siena poll as an “outlier” in a memo to House Democrats, according to Politico.
Other polls also paint a grim picture for Biden. A CNN poll conducted by SSRS from June 28-30 found Trump leading Biden 49% to 43%, unchanged from April. A USA Today/Suffolk University poll taken June 28-30 shows Trump with a 41% to 38% lead over Biden, a shift from a May survey that had them tied at 37%. A Reuters/Ipsos online poll taken July 1-2 shows Trump and Biden tied at 40% in a head-to-head contest.
Biden campaign pollster Molly Murphy stated, “Both internal and outside polling confirm that the race remains incredibly tight and I agree with the Times that today’s polling doesn’t fundamentally change the course of the race. President Biden continues to narrow Trump’s support among independents, and we have work to do to bring home our coalition — all the while Trump appears unable to expand his coalition.”
Post-debate polls have raised red flags about Biden’s age and mental competence. A CBS News/YouGov poll conducted June 28-29 found that 72% of voters do not believe Biden has the mental and cognitive health to be president, similar to the Times/Siena poll results. The USA Today poll found that 41% of Democrats want Biden replaced as the nominee, while 32% said the same in the Reuters poll.
A Wall Street Journal poll released Wednesday found Trump leading Biden 48% to 42% among voters nationally, with 80% of voters believing Biden is too old to run for a second term. A sustained polling decline could prompt more Democrats to call for Biden to step aside, especially if polls suggest that Harris would perform better against Trump. Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas) has already called for Biden to withdraw, and two vulnerable House Democrats, Reps. Jared Golden (D-Maine) and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.), have expressed their belief that Trump will defeat Biden.
A new NBC News poll also casts a gloomy shadow over the upcoming 2024 presidential election. Three-quarters of voters are concerned about Biden’s age and mental fitness, while nearly two-thirds have concerns about the multiple trials Trump faces. The poll shows Trump expanding his national lead in the Republican presidential nominating contest to more than 40 points over his nearest competition, with Biden and Trump deadlocked in a hypothetical rematch.
The NBC News poll, conducted from Sept. 15-19, found that 74% of registered voters have major or moderate concerns about Biden’s mental and physical health. Additionally, 62% have concerns about Trump facing various criminal and civil trials, and 60% have concerns about Biden’s possible involvement in his son Hunter’s business dealings. Furthermore, 47% have concerns about Trump’s mental and physical health.
Despite these concerns, Trump has grown his lead in the GOP race. He is the first-choice pick of 59% of national Republican primary voters, with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 16%, followed by former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley at 7%, and former Vice President Mike Pence and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 4% each. In June, Trump was ahead of DeSantis by 29 points, 51% to 22%.
Biden’s job rating among registered voters stands at 41% approval and 56% disapproval, the highest disapproval rating of his presidency. He is underwater among voters aged 18-34, women, Latinos, and independents. Only 37% of voters approve of Biden’s handling of the economy, and 41% approve of his handling of foreign policy. Additionally, 59% of Democratic primary voters want a Democratic candidate to challenge Biden for the nomination in 2024.
In a hypothetical general election matchup, the NBC News poll shows Biden and Trump tied at 46% each. Biden leads Trump among Black voters, younger voters, college-educated whites, Latinos, and women, while Trump leads among rural voters, men, white voters, and whites without a college degree. Among independents, Biden gets 42%, while Trump gets 35%.
In other hypothetical matchups, Biden holds a 1-point lead over DeSantis, 46% to 45%, and trails Haley by 5 points, 46% to 41%. In a multi-candidate field, Trump gets 39%, Biden gets 36%, an unnamed Libertarian Party nominee gets 5%, an unnamed No Labels candidate gets 5%, and an unnamed Green Party candidate gets 4%.
The NBC News poll also found that 67% of voters have high interest in the 2024 elections, with a greater share of Republican voters (75%) than Democratic voters (68%) showing high interest. Key parts of the Democratic base, including younger voters, Black voters, and Latino voters, have lower interest than in past election cycles.
Biden’s net favorability rating is higher than Trump’s and Vice President Kamala Harris’. In the Biden vs. Trump hypothetical matchup, a majority of Biden voters say their vote is more against Trump than for Biden, while a majority of Trump voters say their vote is more for Trump than against Biden. Voting preference for next year’s congressional elections is essentially tied, with 46% of voters preferring a Democratic-controlled Congress and 45% preferring Republicans.
The national NBC News poll was conducted from Sept. 15-19 of 1,000 registered voters, with an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. The margin of error for the 321 Republican primary voters in the survey is plus or minus 5.5 percentage points.
Source: New York Times, Siena College, CNN, USA Today, Suffolk University, Reuters, Ipsos, Wall Street Journal, NBC News
