The United States and Europe have jointly urged Hezbollah in Lebanon to reduce its strikes on Israel and avoid escalating the conflict into a full-scale war. This call for restraint comes amid heightened tensions in the Middle East, particularly following Israel’s ongoing military operations in Gaza against Hamas. The situation has the potential to spiral into a broader regional conflict, which both the U.S. and European nations are keen to prevent.
Iran, a key player in the region, has been privately advising Hezbollah and other allied militias to exercise caution. Despite its public stance of readiness to respond to any threats, Tehran is wary of provoking a direct confrontation with the U.S. and Israel. Lebanese and Iraqi officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, revealed that senior Iranian leaders have been urging their proxies to hold back on attacks against U.S. forces.
This diplomatic push appears to be having some effect. Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Syria have not attacked U.S. forces for over 13 days, a significant lull since the conflict in Gaza began. This restraint continued even after a U.S. drone strike in Baghdad killed a senior Kataib Hezbollah official. A U.S. official noted that Iran might have realized that unrestricted attacks by their proxies do not serve their interests.
The Biden administration has also adopted a cautious approach. While U.S. forces have launched strikes against Iranian proxies in Iraq and Syria, they have refrained from targeting Iran directly. U.S. diplomats are actively working to broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, emphasizing the need for humanitarian aid and the protection of civilians.
Iran has been reinforcing its message of restraint through diplomatic channels. Iranian military leaders and diplomats have been dispatched across the region to meet with local officials and militia members. An Iraqi official with close ties to Iranian-backed forces stated that Iran is doing its utmost to prevent the expansion of the war and avoid reaching a point of no return.
In Lebanon, Iranian officials have met with Hezbollah leaders, urging them to avoid giving Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu any reason to launch a wider war. The message from Tehran is clear: the axis of resistance, which includes Hezbollah, is winning by keeping the focus on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and complicating normalization plans between Israel and other Gulf states. However, opening another front in Lebanon could jeopardize these gains.
In Iraq, the message has been slightly different. Renewed conflict there could disrupt ongoing talks about a U.S. military withdrawal, a long-sought goal for Iran. While U.S. officials have shown some openness to reducing their presence in Iraq, the Iraqi government appears concerned about a full withdrawal, needing continued support to counter the remnants of the Islamic State.
The Iranian campaign for restraint seems to be effective. Despite near-daily deadly attacks across Israel’s border with Lebanon, Hezbollah’s leader, Hasan Nasrallah, has stopped short of declaring war. Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Syria have refrained from launching attacks since early February, even after the U.S. strike that killed a senior Kataib Hezbollah official.
However, not all Iranian-backed groups are showing the same level of restraint. The Houthis in Yemen have continued to disrupt global trade by harassing commercial shipping through the Red Sea. They have launched numerous attacks, including missile strikes and drone attacks, to protest the Israeli campaign in Gaza. These actions have prompted shipping companies to avoid the area, increasing operational costs.
U.S. forces have responded with a series of strikes on Houthi targets, framing them as self-defense measures. The longer the conflict in Gaza continues, the more challenging it could become for Iran and the U.S. to avoid further escalation. Kenneth “Frank” McKenzie, a retired Marine Corps general, emphasized the need for constant vigilance and deterrence in the Middle East, noting that organizations in the region have a short memory for such matters.
The international community, including the United Nations, has been vocal about the urgent need to protect civilians and ensure the delivery of humanitarian aid. UN Secretary-General António Guterres has called for an immediate ceasefire and emphasized the importance of respecting international humanitarian law. The situation in Gaza has led to a staggering toll on civilians, with thousands killed and millions displaced.
During a day-long debate at the UN Security Council, various representatives stressed the need to avoid a regional conflagration and recommit to a two-state solution. While opinions varied, there was a consensus on the urgency of addressing the humanitarian crisis and preventing further escalation.
The U.S. and European nations continue to press for a diplomatic resolution, urging all parties to exercise restraint and prioritize the protection of civilians. The situation remains precarious, with the potential for further violence if diplomatic efforts fail.
Source: The Washington Post, United Nations
