Pixar’s “Inside Out 2” is poised to lead the domestic box office once again, despite facing competition from two new wide releases. The Disney film added another $17.1 million on Friday, marking a 43% drop from its $30.5 million haul the previous week. A three-day gross exceeding $53 million would place it among the ten biggest third weekends for a domestic release in box office history. It seems likely to land somewhere between seventh and tenth, with that range currently occupied by “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” ($59.9 million), “Spider-Man: No Way Home” ($56 million), “The Avengers” ($55.6 million), and “Jurassic World” ($54.5 million).
The North American total for “Inside Out 2” is expected to surpass $468 million by Sunday. The film is rapidly approaching the billion-dollar global milestone, which would make it the first of the calendar year and the first since “Barbie.”
“A Quiet Place: Day One” is likely to secure the second spot but is performing better than expected and will come closer to “Inside Out 2” than initially predicted. The Paramount release earned $22.5 million from 3,708 theaters on Friday and during preview screenings, surpassing the single-day gross for director John Krasinski’s 2021 sequel ($19.3 million). This makes it the biggest opening day ever for the horror series. Projections for the opening weekend total are now at $53 million, which would exceed the 2018 original’s franchise high of $50.2 million. The movie benefits from being the main attraction in Imax and premium large-format auditoriums.
The production budget for “Day One” was $67 million. Like the first two “A Quiet Place” entries, this one has been well-received by critics and is generating positive buzz among early ticket buyers, earning a B+ grade from audience surveyor CinemaScore, which is commendable for a horror release. This strong opening weekend performance is promising for the film’s price point, and the positive response suggests it will continue to do well in the coming weeks. Directed by Michael Sarnoski, the Big Apple-set prequel stars Lupita Nyong’o, Joseph Quinn, Alex Wolff, and Djimon Hounsou.
Meanwhile, Kevin Costner’s “Horizon: An American Saga — Chapter 1” is not performing as well as hoped. The epic-length Western earned $4.1 million from 3,334 locations on Friday and during preview screenings, putting it on track for a three-day opening in the low-teens, which would place it third on the domestic charts. While this is not insignificant for an original adult drama, the film was intended to be a blockbuster with a $100 million production cost, $38 million of which was funded by Costner himself. Additionally, there was a $30 million P&A spend, also backed by Costner and other investors. Warner Bros. is distributing the film but is not responsible for production or marketing costs beyond some development expenses incurred through New Line.
More than three decades ago, Costner faced skepticism with his directorial debut “Dances With Wolves,” which was humorously dubbed “Kevin’s Gate” in reference to Michael Cimino’s notorious flop “Heaven’s Gate.” However, Costner proved the naysayers wrong, with “Dances With Wolves” becoming the sixth-highest-grossing release of 1991 and winning Oscars for Best Picture and Best Director.
However, “Horizon” has faced challenges, including a hefty price point and mixed reviews from critics following its premiere at the Cannes Film Festival in May. More concerning is that Costner’s target audience does not seem particularly enthusiastic about the film, which received a B- grade on CinemaScore. This suggests that the Western is not generating the buzz needed for a successful box office run. While older audiences typically do not rush to see films on opening weekend, and the upcoming Fourth of July holiday may provide a boost, “Horizon” could have benefited from a stronger debut. With Warner Bros. set to release “Chapter 2” in theaters in just seven weeks, the overall fortunes of the production could decline further.
In fourth place, Sony and Columbia’s “Bad Boys: Ride or Die” earned another $2.835 million on Friday. The Will Smith-Martin Lawrence action sequel is projected to add $10.2 million in its fourth weekend, marking a 46% drop. The total domestic gross is expected to reach $165.1 million by the end of the weekend. The action sequel is quickly catching up to Disney’s “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” ($166 million) and is likely to surpass it soon, becoming the fifth-highest-grossing North American release of the year.
Fifth place goes to the Telugu-language sci-fi epic “Kalki 2898 AD,” which earned $1.9 million on Friday from 1,234 locations. Directed by Nag Ashwin and featuring Indian stars such as Amitabh Bachchan, Deepika Padukone, and Prabhas in a dual role, the film is expected to gross $6.2 million over the three-day frame, including $5.5 million from previews.
As “A Quiet Place: Day One” hits theaters, the question remains whether audiences will embrace the world of “A Quiet Place” without John Krasinski or Emily Blunt. The prequel, set during the early stages of a New York City alien invasion, stars Lupita Nyong’o and Joseph Quinn and is directed by Michael Sarnoski. Despite spinoffs typically not performing as well as direct sequels, “A Quiet Place: Day One” is impressively eyeing a debut similar to its franchise predecessors. Krasinski’s nearly silent film “A Quiet Place” became a sleeper hit in 2018 with a $50 million start and ended its run with $340 million worldwide. The sequel, “A Quiet Place Part II,” opened in May 2021 with $48 million and grossed nearly $300 million globally.
Kevin Costner’s “Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1” is targeting a worrisome $10 million to $15 million in its debut in 4,000 theaters. These ticket sales would be problematic for the big-budget tentpole, though Costner and distributor Warner Bros. are counting on the film to break out in America’s heartland. A sequel, “Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2,” is scheduled to hit theaters in two months, on August 16. This unprecedented release plan is risky, especially since each film carries a $100 million price tag. Warner Bros. hopes the big bet will make the movies feel like cultural events rather than routine screenings. However, the success of “Chapter 2” depends on the performance of “Chapter 1.”
Costner has more at stake than Warner Bros., which is only responsible for distribution costs. The “Yellowstone” star and “Dances With Wolves” director reportedly spent $38 million of his own money to fund the movie series, which he hopes to expand to four parts. Set before and after the Civil War, the story depicts the expansion of the American western frontier. Costner, who directed, co-wrote, and produced the two-part Western, stars alongside Sienna Miller, Sam Worthington, and Jena Malone.
“Horizon” is not expected to top the box office charts. Instead, “A Quiet Place: Day One” will attempt to dethrone Disney and Pixar’s “Inside Out 2,” which has dominated the box office for two consecutive weekends. After earning $101 million in its second weekend, the animated sequel aims to add $55 million to $65 million in its third frame. So far, “Inside Out 2” has generated $369.7 million domestically and $762.1 million globally, making it the highest-grossing movie of the year. In a matter of days, it will be the first film in 2024 to join the coveted $1 billion club.
Source: Variety
