As the first half of the year comes to a close, the countdown to summer begins. With it, comes the looming threat of prolonged power outages, which pose significant problems for residential users, businesses, and industries. A recent technical report by Compañía Administradora del Mercado Mayorista Eléctrico (Cammesa) on the supply and risks of the wholesale electricity market, for the period from 2025 to 2027, has warned of potential mass power outages in the upcoming summer.
The report highlighted serious concerns about energy supply, indicating that generation might fall short of meeting the peak demand, expected especially in the first months of 2025. This estimate considers both locally generated energy and imported electricity from neighboring countries.
High summer temperatures are expected to drive increased energy consumption. Cammesa projects a record consumption peak in February 2025, surpassing the previous record of 29,653 MW set in February 2024. This heightened demand could exceed the system’s energy generation capacity.
### Widespread Power Outage Warning
The “Supply Report,” a technical study by Cammesa, indicates that energy shortages during the upcoming summer, particularly in early 2025, could lead to large-scale power outages. The study emphasizes that without the considered imports and after exhausting operational reserves, power cuts would be necessary to manage the demand.
Without swift measures to address this energy deficit, the situation could lead to extended blackouts across large regions. The report predicts energy consumption could reach 30,700 megawatts (MW), over 1,000 MW higher than the historic peak recorded in February this year, making scheduled power outages unavoidable.
The technical simulations show potential issues from February 27 to March 12, 2025, when demand in Greater Buenos Aires could surpass the 11,200 MW peak recorded in March 2023.
### Stalled Bidding Exacerbates Problem
The situation worsens when considering the Energy Secretariat’s decision to halt the TerConf bidding process, which aimed to expand the thermoelectric park through pre-approved projects. This decision eliminated potential investments totaling approximately USD 4 billion, worsening the outlook.
Analysts highlight the difference between these potential outages and the usual urban power cuts, as these are linked to an overall energy shortage, not just distribution network issues.
### Heat Waves and Power Shortages
Cammesa’s report indicates a high likelihood of at least one week of high demand tied to sustained high temperatures each year from 2025 to 2027. The issues experienced during extreme conditions, like those in February 2024, could persist without improvements in energy supply profiles.
The report also points to an expected failure in energy generation (thermal, hydraulic, renewable, and nuclear) to meet higher demand amid predicted heatwaves. Historical data shows Buenos Aires experienced up to six heatwaves and 21 consecutive days with temperatures over 25°C in recent years.
### Insufficient Energy Reserves
Under peak demand scenarios, operating with reduced reserve margins poses a high risk of unsupplied energy (ENS) for critical conditions. Supply reliability depends significantly on import availability and the condition of the main transmission system.
Cammesa’s reserves in the Wholesale Electricity Market (MEM) stand at 7.2% of available generation. Even with these reserves, energy supplies might fall short, as new generation capacities are unlikely to be operational soon. The report recommends integrating high-reliability peak thermal generation or energy storage to meet peak summer demand.
The likelihood of covering the peak demand with the necessary reserves is 80.9%, leaving a 19% chance that additional measures, such as programmed power cuts, will be needed. Increasing imports by 3,000 MW from Uruguay, Brazil, Paraguay, Bolivia, and Chile could raise the coverage probability to 97%, though this depends on the entire system working as expected.
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