France experienced a political earthquake on Monday as the far-right National Rally (RN) party, led by Marine Le Pen, swept to victory in the first round of legislative elections. This historic result has left President Emmanuel Macron and the country’s left-wing factions scrambling to prevent the RN from forming France’s first far-right government since World War II.
According to official results released by the interior ministry, Le Pen’s party and its allies secured 33% of the vote. A bloc of left-wing parties followed with 28%, while Macron’s centrist alliance trailed with just 20%. The high voter turnout, nearly 60% compared to 39.4% in 2022, added to the sense of volatility and underscored the electorate’s desire for change.
Macron’s gamble to call a snap election after his party’s poor performance in the European Parliament elections last month backfired spectacularly. The results were a clear rebuke for the president and his governing party. “The lesson is that the extreme right is at the gates of power,” said Prime Minister Gabriel Attal in a national address as the results became clear.
The immediate question is whether the left and center blocs can form tactical alliances to block the RN in the final runoff votes scheduled for July 7. “The stakes of the second round are to prevent the far right from having an absolute majority,” Attal emphasized. The left-wing alliance, the New Popular Front, has already indicated it will withdraw candidates in constituencies where they are in third place to avoid splitting the anti-RN vote.
While it remains uncertain if the RN can achieve an absolute legislative majority, securing the greatest number of seats in the French National Assembly would be a dramatic moment in the country’s political history. The vote will take place just over two weeks before the opening ceremony of the Paris 2024 Olympics, adding another layer of significance to the outcome.
Marine Le Pen, whose father Jean-Marie Le Pen founded the movement, declared that the bloc led by Macron had been “practically erased.” Her protégé, Jordan Bardella, who would become Prime Minister if the RN wins, stated, “If the electors grant us an absolute majority to restore the country, I intend to be the Prime Minister of all French people.”
Bardella, at just 28 years old, has played a significant role in softening the image of a party historically associated with antisemitism. Despite this, the RN’s anti-immigration stance and opposition to the European Union and support for Ukraine raise questions about France’s future and its role in Europe.
Professor Rainbow Murray, an expert in French politics at Queen Mary University of London, noted that while the RN is likely to secure more votes than any other party, an absolute majority might still be out of reach. “I don’t think anything is inevitable at this stage. There’s a higher level of uncertainty,” she said, suggesting that the RN could rule as a minority government or that other parties might form a coalition to keep them out of power.
Macron has yet to address the nation directly about the election results. However, in a statement to French media, he acknowledged the high turnout as a testament to the vote’s importance. “The time has come for a large, clearly democratic and republican gathering for the second round,” his statement read. Regardless of the July 7 outcome, Macron’s position as president is secure until the end of his second term in 2027. However, his ability to govern would be significantly handicapped by a far-right government, leading to a “cohabitation” with Bardella.
The far-right’s potential rise to power has sparked anger and shock among left-wing voters, who gathered in Paris to voice their discontent. President Macron’s prime minister, Gabriel Attal, made a solemn address, urging voters to prevent the RN from gaining an absolute majority. “Not a single vote must go to the National Rally,” he declared.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of France Unbowed (LFI), echoed this sentiment, stating that his party would withdraw candidates in constituencies where they were in third place to prevent the RN from winning. The RN’s journey from the extreme-right fringe to securing the support of one in three French voters marks a significant shift in French politics.
The upcoming runoff round will feature either duels between two parties or three-way races, with many third-placed candidates expected to step aside to block the RN. Prime Minister Attal emphasized the moral duty to bar the far right from governing the country with its “disastrous project.”
As France navigates this uncharted political territory, the outcome of the second round will determine whether the far-right can secure an absolute majority or if a coalition of other parties will keep them out of power. The stakes are high, and the future of France’s political landscape hangs in the balance.
Source: NBC News, BBC News
