As the week began, anticipation grew around the launch of the new phase of the national government’s monetary package. However, the markets did not react dramatically, and the dollar displayed much less volatility compared to previous days.
To analyze the market behavior, Canal E spoke with financial advisor Omar De Lucca. He noted that a lot of information had already been reflected in the asset prices. De Lucca pointed out that the new monetary program had its impact, particularly noticeable in the early days of the previous week. He observed only slight increases in bonds and similar stagnations in ADRs and stocks, which showed hardly any movement.
With regards to the upcoming days, De Lucca mentioned that Donald Trump’s potential candidacy for the next U.S. presidency could have a positive effect on the markets. He explained that this situation could benefit the markets mainly because of the relationship Trump has with Javier Milei, as they share similar management styles. De Lucca elaborated that having presidents with similar thinking could strengthen bilateral relations with the United States.
Turning back to the markets, De Lucca remarked that there wasn’t much enthusiasm recently, as investors are awaiting more concrete measures regarding reserve accumulation and the inflow of new dollars. He commented on the recent elimination of passes, describing it as a step by the government toward an ideal scenario and the removal of restrictions. He added that the Central Bank no longer needs to issue money to pay interest, which increases pressure on Treasury debt, as fiscal revenues must now cover the debt it “acquired.”
Regarding inflation, the financial advisor indicated that it is on a downward trajectory. He explained that the situation with the dollar is simpler; if there is no supply, the dollar will continue to rise based on supply and demand. He mentioned that eventually, companies or individuals may need to cover their expenses and sell dollars, a point suggested by Luis Caputo.
In conclusion, De Lucca stated that the most significant influence on the dollar will come from the influx of capital through amnesty initiatives, an area where the government is placing considerable emphasis.
Source: https://www.perfil.com/noticias/canal-e/mercados-financieros-como-sigue-el-dolar.phtml
