In the aftermath of the first presidential debate, President Joe Biden has shifted his focus towards former President Donald Trump, but his campaign continues to be marred by occasional gaffes. The debate’s potential impact is challenging to gauge, especially considering the legal troubles Trump faces. A month ago, it was clear that Biden needed the debate more, but Trump’s conviction on 34 counts has muddied the waters.
Both campaigns are entering the summer with a sense of quiet confidence. Biden’s team, which previously felt the need to shake up the race, now sees a slight but noticeable shift in polls favoring Biden. This shift is attributed to Trump’s legal issues, a drop in violent crime, and a resilient economy. These factors have given Biden’s campaign a renewed sense of optimism about re-election.
However, Trump has also shown resilience. Despite a minor dip in polls post-conviction, his fundraising efforts have been remarkably successful, leveling the financial playing field with Biden much earlier than expected. Structurally, Trump appears to be in a stronger position than he was in June 2020 or June 2016. He is polling better, has a more unified party, and has raised more money than anticipated.
The upcoming debate may not be as consequential as anticipated, given that another debate is scheduled. First debates are often less contentious, as candidates aim to avoid making a bad first impression. Both Biden and Trump have stereotypes to debunk: Biden needs to demonstrate command of the issues and vigor, while Trump needs to appear less unhinged and self-focused.
Engaging in a heated, expletive-filled shouting match would undermine both candidates’ efforts to address these perceptions. Each campaign would prefer the post-debate conversation to focus on the other candidate’s weaknesses. Team Trump would like the focus to be on Biden’s age, while Team Biden would prefer attention on Trump’s erratic behavior.
The debate could devolve into chaos if either candidate feels they are losing and tries to bait the other into displaying weakness. For Biden, baiting Trump could backfire, making him appear more concerned about Trump than the voters. Trump, on the other hand, has previously suffered from being too mean-spirited and bully-ish on the debate stage.
Both campaigns would benefit from showcasing the other candidate’s weaknesses, but this requires skilled debating, which neither candidate has demonstrated recently. Ironically, Biden’s best debates were in 2007 and 2008, which, while not boosting his poll numbers, caught the attention of his future running mate, Barack Obama.
The tone and tenor of the debate are largely in the hands of the candidates. If they choose to bait each other, the debate could turn off many voters. However, both campaigns believe they are on winning paths, which may lead to a more subdued affair. Both candidates have more to lose than gain from this first debate, and with another debate scheduled, they may attempt to showcase their best selves.
One of the Biden campaign’s stipulations for the debate was the ability to cut the mics when a candidate goes over their allotted time. This measure aims to prevent the chaos of the first 2020 debate. However, this could inadvertently help Trump appear more disciplined and reasonable, countering the Biden campaign’s efforts to paint him as unhinged.
The Biden campaign’s insistence on mic-cutting could help Trump present a more controlled image, which may not be in Biden’s best interest. The mainstream media’s previous attempts to deplatform Trump post-January 6th riots may have inadvertently strengthened his media ecosystem, making him a more powerful propagandist.
There are two ways to handle Trump: give him more rhetorical rope or try to cancel him. Canceling him hasn’t worked, so perhaps it’s time to trust the public to decide. Trump’s behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic likely sealed his fate with voters, but had he been prevented from displaying his worst instincts, voters might not have tuned him out.
Ultimately, both candidates are navigating a complex landscape. Biden’s focus on Trump post-debate is a strategic move, but his campaign must be cautious of gaffes that could undermine their efforts. The debate’s impact remains uncertain, but both candidates are likely to tread carefully, knowing they have more to lose than gain.
Source: NBC News, The Atlantic
